Category: Season Previews

2017 Batavia Muckdogs Season Preview

2016 Team Stats

.218/.298/.294
20 HR/133 XBH
651 IP, 5.00 ERA, 1.53 WHIP

At the midway point of the season and with All-Star Games are happening all over affiliated baseball, the start of a brand new season is upon us. The short-season single A campgain kicks off this week, including in the New York Penn League and for your Batavia Muckdogs. There, manager Mike Jacobs, a former Marlins’ favorite, leads the likes of Thomas Jones, JC Millan, Shane Sawczak and the rest of a young spirited bunch hoping to become that and more.At the midway point of the season and with All-Star Games are happening all over affiliated baseball, the start of a brand new season is upon us. The short-season single A campgain kicks off this week, including in the New York Penn League and for your Batavia Muckdogs. There, manager Mike Jacobs, a former Marlins’ favorite, leads the likes of Thomas Jones, JC Millan, Shane Sawczak and the rest of a young spirited bunch hoping to become that and more.

After a seven year playing career, Mike Jacobs begins his first season behind the bench at the helm of this year’s Batavia squad. Jacobs was known best for his power hitting game proven by his .253/.313/.473 career slash line and 100 career homers, most of which came in his tenure as a Fish. His career year came in 2008 when he slugged .514, 15th in the NL, slammed 32 homers, 14th in the NL and drove in 93 runs, 20th in the NL all while playing in a pitcher-friendly home park, Pro Player Stadium. The Dawgs are already reaping the benefits of Jake’s power hitting background. Where last year’s squad scored 47 runs via 18  XBH in the entire month of June, this year’s squad has already scored 44 runs via 13 XBH in their first five games. Jacobs’ staff is rounded out by assistant coach and former Muckdogs’ OF TJ Gamba, hitting coach Rigobertio Silviero who enters his ninth season as a Marlins’ affiliated coach and pitching coach Jason Erickson, another former NYPL player (for State College as part of the Pirates’ orgainzation) and third-year pitching skipper.

Lineup

2B Jhonny Santos
CF Thomas Jones
1B Lazaro Alonso
RF Zachary Daly
DH Terry Bennett
3B JC Millan
LF Mathew Brooks
C David Gauntt
SS Marco Rivera

Center fielder Thomas Jones is the Marlins’ third round draft pick out of Laurens High School in South Carolina. He enters 2017 as the club’s sixth ranked overall prospect and third ranked positional prospect. A football standout in high school who earned some of the nation’s best overall rankings as a safety and had multiple offers on the table from some of the nation’s top football programs including Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina and South Carolina, Jones forwent that career to play baseball in Miami. According to Jones, he used football to improve his athleticism and get his name into the first round of multiple sports’ drafts, but it was always baseball he saw himself making his career in.

“The decision was easy. I always wanted to play baseball,” Jones said of his decision to sign witht the Marlins. “I did well in football which gave me a lot of exposure. Playing football helped me to be quick on my feet. Playing free safety in football and center field in baseball have similar characteristics.”

The characteristics Jones speaks of include blazing speed that allotted him a 4.31 40-yard dash time as well as 16 stolen bases in 17 attempts his senior year and the overall ability to cover both center field gaps advantageously, fantastic hands that allowed him to easily create turnovers as well as maintain superior bat speed and an extremely athletic frame that let him outmuscle opposing wide receivers, bench 260 pounds and squat 500, and which has scouts projecting him to become a 20+ homer threat as he fills out and matures.

Of course, Jones has some things to iron out in order to reach that offensive potential. He needs to add some fluidity and repeatability to his timing and mechanics which currently look slightly stiff at times. He also needs to add some loft to his straight-through swing in order to make the most of his power potential. Jones does well at getting his lower half involved in his approach but he will need to perfect his footwork which currently sees him almost hopping into swings before his back foot pivot, leading to him frequently falling out of the box on his follow-through. While he needs some seasoning, the few hitches in his offensive game are quite understandable for a two-sport athlete and should all work themselves out as he commits all of his time to baseball. Though he admits filling in the holes in his game has been and will continue to be a trial, Jones is trusting the course of action and putting in all the necessary effort to succeed.

“All my time is focused on baseball now,” Jones said. “I’m training to become consistent with all my tools. It’s a process but I continue to grind it out.”

With plus present speed and power and average defensive skills, all of which stand to improve, Jones has a five-tool make-up which makes it easy to see why he comes into this season as the Marlins’ second best positional prospect. However, the intuitive Jones who owned a 3.66 GPA in high school and shows maturity well beyond his years isn’t worried about rankings and he isn’t going to let anything deter his focus from his modus operandi.

“I always keep a positive mind, no matter what,” Jones said. “This game is already hard itself. So I don’t even think about the outside talk and I just play the game.”

Yasiel Puig: $42 million, Yoan Moncada: $31 million, Luis Robert: $25 million. You probably remember reading about these massive international deals being reached which instantly turned poverty-stricken Cuban kids and families into multi-millionaires, all for their services on the baseball field. One you probably didn’t read about was Lazaro Alonso, a 20-year-old native of Pinar Del Rio who signed with the Marlins for $100,000. Although he didn’t receive the fanfare nor the payday his countrymen received upon arriving in America, Alonso hopes, that through hard work, both the money and the adulation will one day come.

“I was just a boy in Cuba, with no history,” Alonso told El Nuevo Herald. “I have only just started in everything. My life is a book to be written. I hope to make noise soon.”

Alonso will attempt to get the band tuned up this short season with Batavia. Regarded as Cuba’s eighth best prospect last season after he hit .299/.436/.494 as a rookie during Serie Nacionale’s 2014-15 season and .395/.495/.535, the second best hitter in Cuba’s 23-and-under summer league last year, Alonso is a massive physical specimen, standing 6’3″, weighing 230. Accordingly, his best tool is his incredible raw power which scouts contend could someday produce 25+ home runs if in the lineup every day.

Alonso’s best secondary tool is plus- pitch recognition ability that allotted him more walks than strikeouts in his rookie season. The disciplined plate approach allows Alonso to see a lot of pitches and force oppositions into making mistakes, a trait rarely found in power-first hitters. If Alonso is to fully reap the benefits of his prodigious power and his solid plate presence though, he is going to need to vastly improve the mechanics behind his swing. With his back leg bent and front leg straight, he strides from a very off-balanced load and fails to get his hands and arms linear to the ball. His inability to get ahead of pitches leads to very subpar timing and a very long swing. Alonso also fails to cover the plate, struggling against pitches on the outer half, particularly against lefties, a downfall that doesn’t bode well for his future against pitchers at the next level who can go corner to corner. Top to bottom, Alonso’s mechanics need a near complete overhaul. He’s also currently quite limited position ally due to  below average athleticism and speed.

Needless to say, Alonso definitely has some work ahead of him, making him one of the rawest prospects in the organization. However, he has already taken a positive first step in realizing his true potential by formulating the understanding that he has a long road ahead of him, accepting it and having the will to learn and grow.

“My swing is not perfect, my mechanics in the box must improve a lot,” Alonso said. “But I trust that I have the strength to improve.”

Terry Bennett is a Marlins’ 12th round draft pick from 2015 out of Atlantic Coast High School in Jacksonvlle. Before signing with the Fish, the exponentially athletic Bennett accepted an offer to continue playing both football and baseball at FIU. However, when Miami came calling, Bennett didn’t think twice.

“Baseball has always been my first love & being drafted was always dream for me growing up,” Bennett said. “After my senior season of football, I knew that I was done playing. My love for doing it everyday wasn’t there.”

After spending the last two seasons getting acclimated to playing baseball full time in the GCL, the Marlins believe Bennett is ready to make the jump to single A. A .340 senior year hitter in high school and Atlantic Coast’s first ever baseball draftee, the 6’0″ 205 Bennett, who was also a stout yet sneaky quick running back in the football world, owns a good combination of power and speed. When it has come to focusing solely on baseball, Bennett says he has made the acclimation quite naturally, not forgetting or completely abandoning his roots but also not being accustomed to change.

“The transition has been really good. I love baseball so know matter if I’m going good or bad I still want to come out everyday and try to get better,” Bennett said. “Football gave me that tough edge so that always comes in handy because baseball can break you down if you aren’t tough enough. I’ve gotten tremendously better from being in high school to now. I also have a lot of room for improvements but the coaches work us hard and know their stuff.”

The lefty hitter favors the pull variety of hitting but has also shown the ability to go to all fields. Mechanically, everything looks pretty good here. Bennett stands from a straight away stance, triggers with a front foot heel turn and steps into the ball. He keeps his back knee and shoulder linear and his head stationary before he engages a quick lofty swing.

The only knock here is that Bennett doesn’t load up much on his back foot and instead relies almost completely on his arms at the expense of his looseness and some of his power potential. Also, his back elbow doesn’t move far from his body which negates even more of his strength and leads to trouble barreling up. However, these are common mechanical flaws for undergraduate hitters, especially those who play more than one sport. If Bennett can get his lower half more involved in his swing and learn to reach back more on his swing while his body matures and his knowledge of the strike zone improves, he could become a solid middle of the order doubles-first threat with the ability to reach fences at any part of the park.

Though his throwing arm has some growing to do, Bennett’s aforementioned furious athleticism and good jets give him eligibility at all three outfield spots. He’s spent most of his time in center field which is likely where he will line up most of the time for the Dawgs this year. Like Alonso, Bennett is another guy who has a lot of growing to do but at just 19 and at the expense of just a 12th round pick, he will not be pressured at all. At this point, he’s viewed as a long-term project but his able-bodiedness, energetic attitude and sponge-like brain could allow him to make leaps instead of steps.

J.C. Millan’s backstory is one which will resonate with many in the Miami community and hit close to home for any Marlins fan who became familiar and got to know the late Jose Fernandez. Millan was born on January 18, 1996 in Havana, Cuba. A middle child in a family of limited means and the son to a father who he rarely saw due to him chasing his own baseball dreams, life wasn’t easy for Millan growing up.

“Living in Cuba wasn’t easy for us. My parents had to work really hard to always find a way for me and my sisters to always have food on the table, especially my mom since my dad was most of the time.”

During his teenage years, J.C.’s parents came upon the opportunity to relocate some of the family to the United States. Some of the family, but not all. Still, Millan’s mother jumped at the opportunity and although life in America wasn’t much easier at first, J.C. eventually found comfort.

“We had the opportunity to come to the US and my parents never hesitated because they wanted the best life for us and for me and my sister to one day succeed,” Millan said. “At first it was hard for us to adjust to the system here, especially me going to a new school, speaking no English and sitting in classes when I didn’t understand a word the teachers would say. But as the years passed by, we settled in.”

Much like Jose Fernandez and his family were faced with and made the difficult decision to leave Jose’s grandmother and his entire extended family behind in hostile Cuba in order to better their own lives, J.C. and the Millans parted from one of J.C.’s two sisters and her child, J.C.’s nephew, when they made their trek to Florida, a process and experience which has admittedly taken its toll on him.

“It’s pretty hard to take sometimes, leaving mostly your entire family behind and not being able to see them every day and instead maybe once every couple years,” Millan said. “I would love for them to be here but I don’t know if that will ever happen.”

Before each game, after he takes the field, Millan has made it a ritual to spirtually show gratitude what he has been given these past few years. Then, he audibly recites the same phrase for both his parents who allotted him the opportunity to take that field and for those whom he was made to leave behind back home.

“Every game I get on one knee in any position I play and give my thanks to the man above,” Millan said. “Then I verbally say, “This game is for my family.””

When told the story of how the organization made it possible for Jose’s grandmother to flee Cuba and join him in the United States to share in the realization of his dream, Millan, although still a bit skeptical given the still arduous political relations between Cuba and America, is a bit more hopeful of one day playing on an MLB diamond in front of his entire family, including his sister and nephew who, for the time being, remain in Havana.

“I feel like it’s impossible for my other sister and nephew to be here right now,” Millan said. “But it would mean everything in the world for them to be here with us, and I wouldn’t know how to thank them for that.”

Millan, a 6’0″ 185 pounder attended Brito Academy in Miami before spending a season at Broward College where he hit .324/.407/.443/.850, placing fifth in BA, third in OBP, fourth in SLG and third in OPS. His 18 steals ranked second in his conference and his .846 BB/K by way of a 26/22 K/BB also ranked third. From there, he took his talents to the GCL. There, as he got his first taste of big league ball, his stats weren’t nearly as glorified but as long as he was learning, Millan wasn’t concerned with them. He enters this year in Batavia with the same mindset: control what he can control and not get too far ahead of himself.

“I learned a lot at Broward as far as always being prepared before at bats and always have a plan when i go to the plate,” Millan said. “GCL wasn’t the year I wanted to have numbers wise but I’m not worried much about how my numbers were as long as I felt I was competing every single at bat and not getting overmatched. I have the same mindset coming into this year with the Muckdogs: compete every at bat, be on time and get a good pitch to hit. That’s all I can control. From there on, the ball will take care of itself.”

From a wide split stance that stretches to both ends of the box, Millan bends his plant leg and straightens his front leg as he leans over the strike zone, leading to a preloaded approach. He forgoes a timing trigger by being able to determine location and exhibit patience well beyond his years. The swing itself generates plenty of contact via the use of his quick hands but the timing needs to improve, specifically on breaking pitches where it can get a bit long.

On the basepaths, Millan has the speed and ability to wreak havoc. A long striding runner who gets good jumps, what he lacks in power he makes up for by turning any on-base chance into extra bases with his legs. That same speed serves Millan well in the field where he can play a pluthera of positions. He has eligibility at all three outfield spots, second base and third base and he will play all of them and then some in the same night, as long as it keeps him on the field.

“I feel comfortable at all three outifled spots but I feel like I have worked really hard in the infield to be where I am,” Millan said. “I can play second and third with no pressure but I’ll play any position that keeps me on the lineup every night, even if I have to pitch an inning or catch a whole game. Whatever it takes to be on the lineup, I’ll do it.”

Thankfully for Millan, his skill set as a singles-first bat with good speed and good range to both sides of the field projects him best as a top of the order second baseman. After a challenging start to life which born in him the need to grow up and mature fast, things are finally beginning to go Millan’s way. With success in Batavia, he should get the chance to finish out the year in Greensboro and get a look at the full-season level. As long as Millan’s road has been to this point, he still has a long way to go in perfecting his game and reaching the upper minors but a few years to him probably sounds like a few minutes. The right mindset and will to succeed should carry him a long way to pulling on a Marlins jersey sometime in the 2019-2020 range.

Pitching Rotation

1. Sam Perez
2. Edward Cabrera
3. Alejandro Cabrera
4. Alberto Guerrero

Sam Perez is a Marlins’ fifth round pick from last year out of Missouri State University. Exclusively a reliever over his four year collegiate career with the Bears, Perez tossed to a 3.31 ERA and 1.15 WHIP via fantastic control numbers including a 9.33 K% and a minuscule 2.75 BB%. But the Marlins saw something more in Perez than a late inning reliever. Last year in Batavia, they eased him into starting as he got the ball to begin a game in eight of his 16 appearances. Usually a long, strenous and difficult process and frequently a failed experiment, Perez, despite having to modify his game quite extensively, got through the transitional process to the rotation quite smoothly, holding down a 3.72 ERA by way of a 1.38 ERA.

“The adjustment to the rotation wasn’t as hard as I thought it would be but it was somewhat stressful at first mainly due to the mindset,” Perez said. “Out of the bullpen, you would get a signal to start throwing and you would try to get hot as fast as possible. In your head it’s, “okay, who’s up to bat, who’s on deck, go, go, go, get hot.” Being in the rotation you have so much time you have to make sure to pace yourself in the pregame warmup.”

Another big change for Perez as part of the rotation has been pitch selection. A zone pounding interchangeable fastball/slider thrower with a very infrequently used changeup out of the pen, he has had to develop the changeup to the point where he can throw it with just as much confidence as the slider and more frequently than it. In order to keep stress down but also keep his velocity consistent, he’s also had to learn how to set hitters up with the fastball rather than just coming right after them. Despite being a lot to tackle, it seems Perez has his recipe for success forumulated.

“As a starter I am throwing more fastballs instead of high stress pitches. The goal for most starters is usually to get as many outs as possible with your fastball and use your offspeed pitches when necessary,” Perez said. “But I would say that fastball and changeup usage go hand in hand with trying to go deeper in games. My velocity hasn’t suffered in order to go deeper in games. My pitch selection is what should allow that. Throwing a pitch with full conviction is a must for all pitchers, starters included, therefore my velocity has remained the same. The ability to be an efficient pitcher is what should help me go deeper in games.”

It’s a testament to Perez’s work ethic the strides he’s been able to make with his changeup which less than a season ago was nothing more than a mix-in waste pitch. Since, it has become arguably as good as his bender, and, at 82, a perfect companion to his mid-90s heat. Thrown with the same arm speed as his slider, he effectively keeps hitters guessing, no matter how many times through the order he goes. Perez attributes his success as a starter and ability to get deeper into games to that pitch.

“The changeup is a must for any starting pitcher. This is a big change from the bullpen because you attack hitters with your best stuff as soon as you’re in the game. As a bullpen pitcher you’re lucky if you go through a lineup once. That’s why my changeup wasn’t used as often as my slider: I wasn’t having to think of how to approach hitters more than once. The only times I threw changeups out of the bullpen was in a hitter’s count and they were expecting a fastball over the plate,” Perez said. “I feel as though my changeup has good movement and enough speed differential to help my fastball play even better. I have great confidence in my changeup and that allows me to throw it in any count to any batter, right or left. In order to become the most successful starting pitcher I can be, my changeup will be thrown more often in order to make the fastball more effective. For me as a starter I use the changeup to help set up the fastball and induce ground balls.”

With an obvious great understanding of how to effectively eat innings despite coming up as a reliever and his ability to make great strides with his changuep, Perez has successfully molded himself into a future 4-5 starter and the ace of this year’s Muckdogs staff. With a good 95-82 velo mix, a tricky slide step to short arm right handed delivery, and the aforementioned similar arm speed on all three of his pitches, Perez can still live all around the zone without getting hit too hard. He will need to improve his command and ability to get his stuff to the corners and not catch as much of the plate as he matures to the upper minors but that should all come as he logs more innings. At 22, Perez should be among those called up to Greensboro at short season’s end. With continued success there, he could be pushed rather aggressively to A+ and beyond, making him a candidate to contribute to the pitcher-needy Marlins in some capacity by 2019.

Shane Sawczak, a local kid out of Lake Worth and former student at Palm Beach State, was selected by the Marlins in the 19th round of last year’s draft. As Sawczak puts it, he was thrilled just to be drafted but to be drafted by his hometown team which has allowed his family to continue to share in his dream on a regular basis, turned the moment from great to amazing.

“Being drafted in general was a dream come true, but being drafted to the Marlins was an incredible feeling,” Sawczak says. “I would like to thank the organization for giving me the opportunity to pitch for them. I just got lucky I’m from south Florida. I grew up watching and attending the Marlins games with my family. It gives me better opportunities to see my family still and get to train and prepare myself for the upcoming season.”

After the draft, an energetic and pumped up Sawczak spent 2016 stifiling hitters to the tune of a 1.93 ERA via a 1.13 WHIP and 26/13 K/BB in 17 appearances for the Muckdogs. After getting a look with the Grasshoppers to end 2016, he is back with Batavia to begin this season as the anchor out of the bullpen. He is one of quite a few returnees that make up the core of this year’s Muckdogs squad, a core which Sawczak describes as kindred, making showing up to work every day comfortable and fun.

“This year, the Muckdogs have a special bond,” Sawczak said. “We all have spent a year together and are having fun playing together on the same diamond. We all have each others’ backs and we pick each other up.”

Sawczak relies on mid-90s moving heat, an 84-86 mph changuep and an upper 70s breaking ball. He pounds the zone with the fasbtall which he has found success with at the lower levels but he will need to learn to place the breaking stuff to succeed in the upper minors. If he can, Sawczak lines up as a quality late reliver based on a lively fastball with projectable secondaries. Keep him on the radar as a future closer.

Projected 2017 Team Stats

39-41
.245/.322/.336
38 HR/157 XBH
647 IP, 4.26 ERA, 1.42 WHIP

Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp 2017 Season Preview

The Fish get fishier in 2017 as the Jumbo Shrimp and Crustacean Nation are born in Jacksonville. There, Brian Anderson, Austin Dean, Dillon Peters and Jarlin Garcia will make up a young colony of shellfish hoping to become sailfish in the near future.

Leading the Shrimp into their inaugural campaign will be Randy Ready who gets the promotion from A+ Jupiter where last season he led the Hammerheads to a 68-69 record. After a very decent .259/.359/.387, 10.9 WAR 13-year playing career, Ready began his managing career as skip of the short season Oneonta Tigers where he led a 47-27 division title team and thus immediately became one of MiLB’s best managers. After earning the New York Penn League’s title of Manager of the Year, Ready began his full season ball managerial career, coaching the Padres’ single A affilliate the Fort Wayne Wizards for two seasons before making his AA debut in 2007. That season, for the inaugural year San Antonio Missions, Ready coached the likes of Chase Headley, Will Venable, Nick Hundley and Wade LeBlanc to a Texas League championship. Ready then briefly managed in AAA, coached hitting in the majors, got in the conversation for a MLB head coaching job and returned to AAA first as a hitting instructor then again as a manager before spending fourt years out of baseball. Last January, he was hired by the Marlins.

Ready’s resume speaks for itself: 34 years total experience in the game, persoanl knowledge playing at five different defensive positions, knowledge to hit as high as .309/.423/.520, two titles as manager, experience managing at each level of the minors and coaching in the majors and an overall fantastic positive attitude. With Randy at the helm, it’s safe to say the Shrimp will be Ready for success each time they take the field this season.

Lineup

Yefri Perez, CF
Austin Dean, LF
Brian Anderson, RF
David Vidal, 2B
Taylor Ard, 1B
John Norwood, RF
Austin Nola, C
Alex Yarbrough, SS

Following a 2016 campaign which saw him hitting .265/.348/.389 between A+ and AA, a season which allotted him the title Marlins’ Minor League Player of the Year, Brian Anderson opened some eyes. This offseason and spring training, he has made those eyes pop. First, Anderson took his talents to the Arizona Fall League where, against some of baseball’s best young talent, he was the runner up for the offseason league’s MVP award by hitting .273/.360/.506 and pacing it with six homers for the league champion Mesa Solar Sox. From there, upon a spring training invite, he joined the Marlins in Jupiter and proceeded to post a .349/.391/.605 slash line with six doubles, a homer, seven RBI and a hit in 12 of 23 games.

Because the Marlins want to take it easy with their best positional prospect who has only played 86 games above A ball, he will return to AA to start 2017 but should his offseason success that translated to spring training success follow him to Jacksonville, he should be a fast mover to New Orleans. As for his future as a big leaguer, he has great instincts and range at third base but his throwing arm is very inaccurate. Compounded by the fact that he is blocked there by Martin Prado for the next three years, he is a great candidate to begin his big league career on the right side of the infield. He has experience there in his minors career and shows the same great reads off the bat and footwork to his left as he does to his right. Should Justin Bour continue to struggle vs lefties, Anderson, who hit .350/.444/.517 against southpaws as a Sun last year, could get his major league debut serving in that capacity.

With a balanced overall offensive game and the knowledge to not do too much at the plate, smarts which he acquired this past season when he turned a 0.37 BB/K from 2015 into a 0.60 BB/K and gap to gap power from fantastic mechanics including the ability to stay back and transfer power vertically through his 6’3″ 185 pound frame most advantageously, Anderson has the potential to become an all-around three-five spot hitter. That potential on top of his above average glove work and lateral movement on defense make him not-so-arguably the most intriguing positional player in the Marlins’ system. After his recent accomplishments, Anderson has to know he has a ton of eyes on him, not just within this organization but around baseball and even on a national stage (LINK). Staying within himself and not buckling under that pressure will be his biggest challenge this year. Should Anderson just continue to be himself and favorable circumstances prevail, he will pull on a Marlins’ jersey this season.

Austin Dean is the Marlins’ fourth round pick from 2012, pulled straight from his high school in central Texas. Dean’s life in the professional ranks to this point an understandably rocky adjustment process and learning experience, one which wasn’t helped along at all by a 2014 season which saw him missing considerable time with three different injuries.

Following that disappointing season though, Dean stayed hard at work, putting in the necessary man hours in the Arizona Fall League to make up for lost time. He impressed while doing so, hitting .323/.364/.452 in 16 games, allowing him to crack high A to begin the 2015 regular season. For the 2015 Hammerheads, Dean slashed .268/.318/.366 with 52 RBI, second on the team and five homers, third on the team. The most impressive part of Dean’s game that year was how much he improved his plate discipline and cut down on strikeouts in the extremely pitcher friendly Florida State League. His 13.1 K% that year was a career best and a marked improvement over his 16% rate from 2014 and 20% rate from 2013. Hitting at or around the top of the order most of the season, Dean’s plus speed was put on full display as he stole 18 bags. However, he was also caught ten times proving his jumps and reads need a bit of work.

Dean’s solid comeback year allowed him to make the jump to AA last year. There, he hit mostly at the bottom part of the lineup. Though the tough jump and level and demotion in the order resulted in a more free swinging version of Dean proven by his career high 20.5% K rate, he was also able to do enough to at least foul pitches off and work deep counts, as proven by his 77% contact rate. Thus high high K% was evened out by a 9.0% walk rate, his best since his days in rookie ball. Dean also added some loft to his swing and managed to slug out a career high 11 homers, tops on the 2016 Suns and inside the top 15 in the Southern League. He did have a mediocre .238 BA but that can be blamed in part on a lowly .283 BABIP and he did only steal one bag but that is a product of him being sent only three times. All things considered, Dean had a solid building block type first season in AA ball.

This year, Dean returns to the AA ranks as many B and C type prospects do but he does so with the knowledge to hit anywhere in the lineup and with a good balance between patience, swinging to get on and swinging for the fences. This plus the familiarity he gained when it comes to hitting in the upper minors last year makes him a prime candidate to have a breakout 2017 campaign and show the world exactly what scouts see in him and what led them to rank as one of the organization’s top 15 prospects for three years running. An already 30-40 power bat with potential for more production in that department as he fully matures into what scouts see as a possible 15-20 homer threat, Dean also possesses above average speed and the ability to turn base hits into an XBHs as well as the potential for a ceiling of 15 steals yearly. On top of that, despite being pretty positionally limited, his outfield arm ranks as high as 50 on the 20/80 scale.

If Dean can bring his K rate back down to his career norms (around 13%) and maintain the ability to walk that he had last season as well as continue to grow into his fantastic raw power and get more chances to show what he can do on the bases by hitting higher in the lineup, Dean is a guy who could have a huge 2017 and find his way into a Marlins uniform as part of September call ups and into spring training to start 2018. At an intriguing point in his career, we will keep a close eye on the 23-year-old this season.

Pitching Rotation

1. Dillon Peters
2. Matt Tomshaw
3. Omar Bencomo
4. Mike Kickham

Still building on a 17-7 2.26 ERA, 2.43 K/BB, 1.14 WHIP three year college career in Division I baseball at Texas, Dillon Peters was setting himself up to have his name called early in the 2014 Draft. However, in May of that season Peters suffered an elbow injury, which caused him to miss the Longhorns’ regional and College World Series run. Ultimately, Peters underwent Tommy John surgery, which resulted in his draft stock to plundering. The Marlins drafted Peters, who still hadn’t resumed any sort of baseball activities, with their 10th round pick. Slated to make at least $504,000 just via his slot recommendation and not including a signing bonus a few months prior, Miami signed him for $141,800 plus a $175,000 signing bonus. Then, it appeared they were taking a big swing at a 21-year-old who just tore a ligament in his throwing elbow. Today, Peters is the fifth best prospect in their organization and they look like geniuses.

After spending the 2015 season rebuilding his arm strength, Peters earned that reputation last season tossing to the tune of a 2.46 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his first 106 innings with the Hammerheads, totals which ranked fifth eighth in the Florida State League. Those numbers came by way of a minuscule walk total of 16 and 89 Ks, spelling out a 5.56 K/BB, best in the FSL. Before being rewarded with organizational All-Star honors as well as postseason All-Star accolades, Peters was rewarded with the call up to AA to end the year. Making the difficult jump in level, he didn’t appear to lose a step, holding down a 1.99 ERA by way of a 0.93 WHIP and 16/4 K/BB in his first four Jacksonville starts.

Even though he shed some poundage from his draft year, the still stout 5’9″, 195 Peters doesn’t do much pre-pitch to deceive hitters, throwing from a fairly basic and routine slidestep windup and 3/4 delivery. Alternatively, Peters’ success stems from his innate ability to pinpoint his locations with some of if not the best present command and control within the organization. He sets batters up with his 92-94 MPH fastball that shows good downward tilt, throws off their timing with a deceptive changeup which he throws from the same arm angle as the heat and which shows good late life down in the zone and punches them out with his best pitch curveball, a pitch that can get downright nasty bending in under 80 MPH, a 14-15 MPH drop off from his fastball, on either side of the black. For most of his career, Peters has been a to-contact lefty that has relied on groundball outs but with a slight uptick in velo in recent years and the invention of adding a cutter to his arsenal, a pitch that he gets in under the hands of opposing hitters inducing either whiffs or weak emergency hack foul balls by guys who can’t shorten up in time, the Ks have started to materialize. His ability to pound the zone and hit the catcher’s glove wherever it is set up keep his ABs and innings short, allowing him to work deep into games. In 2016, he worked into at least the 5th inning in all but three of his starts and got through five full in all but six of his 25 outings.

With the makeup of a Justin Nicolino type only with more velo, better mound presence and more confidence in all four of his pitches, Peters is the closest thing the Marlins have to a rotational ready prospect. That said, with similar continued success in AA this year and continued good health and after impressing Don Matitngly and the front office in spring training, he could get a shot later this year.

Jarlin Garcia, the Marlins’ fourth ranked prospect headed into 2017, will spend his season trying to make up for lost time last season. After posting an ERA under 3, a WHIP under 1.3 and a K/9 of at least 7 in his four of his first five seasons in the organization, Garcia began his first full year in AA, the level which he got a taste of to end the previous season and with more success there, looked primed to possibly make his Major League debut late that season. That possibility looked like it was going to become a reality when after a 3.82 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .236 BAA start to his year in Jacksonville, Garcia got the call to aid the injury-hampered Marlins bullpen after Miami had been forced to move members of their pen such as David Phelps and Jose Urena into the rotation. However, despite the excitement of getting his first MLB call up and the prospect of taking his first MLB mound, Garcia never appeared in a game. Instead, he sat in the bullpen, on the bench. For eight days. During that time, he missed a scheduled throw day, taking no part in any official baseball activities.

On May 28, Garcia was returned to Jacksonville where management tried to ease him slowly back into action, limiting his first start back to just two innings. But the scrupulousness of David Berg and company proved to no avail. In his second start back with the Suns, Garcia left the game in the second inning. He would not return to the mound for nearly three months, the victim (with emphasis on the word victim) of left triceps tendinitis. He was able to return at the very end of the the year and participate in the Arizona Fall League, beginning the comeback process, one which he will continue this year and one that is sure to be gradual as the Marlins ease one of their best prospective arms back into form. Rather than putting 50-80 pitch strain on his arm once every four-five days, he will likely serve as one of the Shrimp’s primary relief options this season.

While there is still time for Garcia, who is still just 25, to make it back to the rotation, pitching out of the pen is probably a more realistic glimpse at his future as a big leaguer. Garcia has the ability to throw four pitches, a fastball, changeup, slider and curveball. The fastball is of the 92-95 MPH variety and he pumps it in with easy velo, from a downwhill plane stemming from his 6’3″ stature. It also flashes good late life and is easily Garcia’s best pitch. The heat sets up two quality offspeed pitches, a changeup and a slider. Garcia’s delivery which features a slow and deliberate windup only to see him power through his releae allows him to mask the arm speed on both pitches, the change dropping off nearly 10 MPH from the fastball and the slider usually sitting in the 80-82 MPH range with good sweeping action. He controls both pitches well, keeping them down in the zone from the same aforementioned downhill stride. However, the same downhill power delivery has led to his feel for and arm speed on the curveball being very inconsistent. He showed improvement by not overthrowing the pitch in 2015 only to struggle with it again before his injury last year. Though both his slider and changeup are quality major league ready pitches, the slider has been the offering that has generated more whiffs and is beginning to emerge as the best he has to offer to compliment his heat. Additionally, even though he threw in just 39.2 innings last year, his K rate hit a career low 6.13. With all of that, the questionability and uncertainty surrounding his health and his need to develop more command of the strike zone, Garcia’s future as a starter is very much in doubt. However, he could still make a very good career as a change-of-pace lefty who is affective against both sides out of the pen and spot starter.

Projected Stats

75-66
.262/.328/.370
82 HR/375 XBH
1,210 IP, 3.72 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

2017 Jupiter Hammerheads Season Preview

It is only a short 105 minute trek from Jupiter to Miami. However, in figurative terms of making it from the friendly confines of Abacoa and a Hammerheads’ cap and jersey to the shadow of the Miami skyline and the bright lights of Marlins Park and an orange and black lid and garb, the road is much, much longer. Nobody knows that better than the bulk of this year’s Hammerheads’ Opening Day roster, a squad nearly completely full of young men repeating a second full season in A+ ball. But the simple fact that this group will spend at least the start of another season in Jupiter should not lead one to draw any negative conclusions. There is talent on this club in the likes of Taylor Ard, Dexter Kjerstad, John Norwood, Avery Romero and Jeff Brigham — talent that they and the Marlins hope will allow them to take the next step sometime this year.

One of few new call ups to the Opening Day Hammerheads will be at the managerial position as Kevin Randel gets the promotion following following two seasons with the Grasshoppers. Randel, a 13th round pick by the Marlins in the 2002 MLB Draft, played for seven seasons, exclusively in the Marlins’ organization. A super utility type guy that could play basically anywhere, Randel boasted a .267/.374/.439 slash line but only played seven games above the AA level and never cracked the majors. Two years after his retirement from playing, Randel re-joined the Grasshoppers, one of his former teams, as hitting coach where he served for two seasons before serving in the same capacity for the Jacksonville Suns. He returned to the Grasshoppers in Greensboro, North Carolina which is a stone’s throw away from his home in Fuquay-Varina to make his managerial debut in 2015. Over the past two years, Randel has recorded a 114-165 record as head coach. A solid lower minors hitter in his time with a wealth of positional knowledge, Randel is well-rounded managerial material.

Projected Lineup

CF Jeremias Pineda
2B Brian Schales
RF John Norwood
LF Dexter Kjerstad
1B Taylor Ard
3B Avery Romero
DH Brad Haynal
C Rodrigo Vigil
SS Rehiner Cordova

Taylor Ard is a 2012 Seattle Mariners’ seventh round pick out of Washington State whom he joined after two seasons at Mt. Hood Community College. As a freshman at Mt. Hood in 2009, Ard earned his league’s triple crown hitting .490 with 12 HR and 49 RBI, an accomplishment that, despite playing just three games before red shirting in 2010, allowed him to join the Division I ranks. In 2011 as a red shirt sophomore, Ard thanked Washington State for their confidence in him to succeed even after missing a full season by hitting .337/.408/.577, a BA that ranked 8th and a SLG that ranked third and .985 OPS that ranked fourth. The power figures came by way of Ard’s 10 homers, most in the Pac 10, and 17 doubles, third most. In his junior year, Ard had another similar fantastic year, hitting .332/.412/.577. Again, he appeared on nearly every power hitting leaderboard including SLG, OPS (.989, 6th) and homers (12, 3rd) and total bases (127, 7th). As a whole, Ard’s three year (plus three games) college career consisted of a .372/.455/.637 slash line with a 1.092 OPS, 34 homers, 46 doubles and a .240 ISO.

Ard joined the Mariners’ organization following the end of the Pac 12 season in 2012 and kept the good times rolling. In his first season as a pro with the short season Everett Aquasox, Ard hit .284/.356/.497. Among qualified Northwest Leaguers, Ard’s BA ranked 10th, his SLG ranked second and his OPS ranked fourth. His twelve homers again put him atop his league’s leaderboard as did his 21 doubles.

However, all of Ard’s success didn’t stop the Mariners from inexplicably releasing Ard just before the 2014 season. It also didn’t stop Ard from playing good baseball and it didn’t take him long to resurface in the pro ranks. Upon his release, Ard took his talents to the independent leagues where he hit .338/.404/.544 with nine homers, 15 doubles and 33 RBI in 50 games, earning All-Star selection honors and catching the attention of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He joined the D-Backs as a member of the rookie ball Misoula Osprey followed by the Hillsboro Hops and finally ended his busy travel season in low A South Bend. In 34 total afilliated ball games, he hit .309/.425/.509 with four homers, eight doubles and 17 RBI. At season’s end, after giving him just 110 ABs and 34 above the rookie ball level, Arizona had apparently seen enough. On October 22, 2014, he was released from the afilliated ball ranks for the second time in two seasons.

But Ard’s tenacity once again paid off. He turned what had to seem like a bad bit of deja vu into a positive learning experience by having an even better 2014 season with the River City Rascals than he had with them a year previous despite playing in nearly twice as many games. In 96 contests, he hit .313/.385/.646. Along with that SLG, his 30 homers, 29 doubles and 83 RBI were all league best totals. At season’s end, after he was named the Frontier League MVP, Ard got a call from a familiar phone number: it was the Marlins, the first club to ever draft him in the 35th round of the 2010 Draft. At that time, Ard, who was 20, passed up Miami’s offer in favor of finishing his college career at Washington State. Seven years later, Ard accepted the Marlins’ offer and headed to Jupiter.

In his first season in the Miami organization at the highest level of competition he’s ever played at and in an extremely power subduing ballpark and league, Ard was able to slug .373, among the top 30 in the FSL. His 14 homers and 73 RBI, on top of both being Hammerheads’ team high totals, were the eighth and fourth best totals in the FSL and his 21 doubles were tied for 20th most.

Ard is a pure power hitting first baseman standing at a robust 6’2″, 230. He stays back on the ball well and transfers his weight very well with an active midsection and legs allowing him to go with pitches on either side of the plate and hit to all fields. But as good as his lower half is, his upper half is equally at a disadvantage. Ard’s trouble with getting his arms extended on swings leads to below average bat speed and although his patience and vision isn’t as bad as his 111/41 K/BB from last year would indicate, leads to a lot of swings and misses. At 27 and still in high A, there is a fair amount of doubt as to his future and in making it to the show but with similar power production to start 2017, he should be a fast mover to AA. What he does in making that difficult jump to the upper minors will go a long way in telling the tale of how far his career can go. If Ard can shorten up his swings and improve his bat speed, he draws comparison to a Mike Sweeney type fourth outfielder.

Dexter Kjerstad forwent being drafted out of high school by the Reds in the 50th round of the 2010 Draft in favor of enjoying a very successful two year (plus five games) collegiate career, albeit at three different universities in the hopes of improving that draft stock and his reputation as a prospect. However, despite posting a .374/.426/.621 slash line which included an All-Conference junior season at Louisiana Lafayette in which he led the Sun Belt Conference in BA (.388), hits (99), and total bases (155), ranked fourth in homers (12) and came in fifth in SLG (.608) and OPS (1.039), Kjerstad somehow fell off draft boards altogether.

Prior to the 2014 Draft, Kjerstad was signed by the Kansas City Royals. In 80 games that year for the low A Lexington Legends, the 22-year-old had a respectable season (especially for a guy in his first season in affiliated ball), hitting .275/.336/.428 with six homers, 25 XBH and 33 RBI. A year later though, another wave of somewhat unexpected and potentially mysterious bad fortune hit Kjerstad when after 51 games of .247/.288/.316 ball in high A, the Royals pulled the plug and released him. However, no stranger to a setback, Kjerstad once again took it in stride and headed to the independent leagues where he quickly became one of the American Association’s very best players.

After living out the rest of 2015 hitting .300/.338/.584 with 11 homers and six triples, totals which ranked third and second on his hometown Amarillo Thunderbirds despite him playing in just 45 of their 100 games, Kjerstad was noticed by and signed by the Marlins. Last season, his first full year in A+, consisted of a .227/.291/.383 slash line with 15 homers, a team high and fifth most in the Florida State League, 55 RBI, 14th most in the FSL and 177 total bases, 12th most on the circuit. While the Ks kept coming for the free swinging power hitter, the rate at which he K’d as well as walked slightly improved from his previous days at the same level. In 170 plate appearances in 2015, Kjerstad walked in just 4% of his trips and struck out in 27.6% of them. Last year, in 462 PAs, he walked 29 times or 5.6% of the time and K’d 132 times or 25.8% of the time. While the improvement wasn’t drastic and while it is unrealistic to expect a hitter like Kjerstad to ever become a walks machine who limits strikeouts, the slight improvement proves his knowledge of the strike zone is maturing.

Along with continuing to improve his plate discipline, the other area of Kjerstad’s offensive game that needs to improve is his becoming a more complete zone hitter. Kjerstad’s hit charts pave him as a pure pull hitter and when you watch his mechanics, you know why. While he transfers his power vertically through his body from bottom to top just fine, his troubles begin when he tries to engage his swing. Far too often does he commit the cardinal sin of pulling his head off the ball in favor of looking skyward towards left field, leading to a reduction in contact. The 6’1″ 210 pounder who owns just average bat speed also finds it difficult getting his arms extended on his swing, disallowing him from barrelling up as often as he would like, making him a prime candidate to get jammed and sawed off and, most of all, leaving the outer half of the plate unprotected. These two factors along with the fact that he doesn’t step into pitches tailing away have made him easy pickings for opposing pitchers who hit their spots on the outer black where Kjerstad either makes forced contact or no contact at all. As Kjerstad proved this fall in the Arizona Fall League where he K’d 20 times in 15 games, those problems will only compound against better competition. These issues are to blame for Kjerstad staying in A+ for a third year and they will need to be ironed out as he inches closer to a AA call-up.

While he faces the pretty tough task of redefining his approach and mechanics at the age of 25, if anyone can do it, it’s the extremely motivated Kjerstad who has never backed down from adversity or challenge. A very athletic outfielder who can play either corner spot with good speed and a slightly above average arm that produces throws that carry, if Kjerstad can add fluidity and extension to his swing and improve his plate coverage, his power potential could carry him to a big league bench sometime within the next three years.
John Norwood is another physical specimen who forwent being signed out of high school in favor of college and then was signed by the Marlins as a minor league free agent. Since joining Miami following a .284/.358/.391 three year career from 2012-2014 at Vanderbilt, Norwood has become one of the most impressive power producers in Miami’s organization. After finishing off his junior collegiate year in 2014 by hitting .256/.284/.295 for the Muckdogs, Norwood made the transition to full season affiliated ball by hitting .233/.304/.392 for the single A Grasshoppers. That year, his 16 homers tied him for sixth most in the South Atlantic League. When Norwood would reach without extra bases that season, he frequently turned it into extra bases by way of the steal as his plus plus speed allowed him to swipe 34 bags, seventh most in the Sally. Last year as he moved to pitcher friendly Jupiter, Norwood improved his walk rate from 8% to 9% and lowered his K rate from 23% to 22%. The power still persisted though as he had 24 doubles, tied for ninth most in the Florida State League and collected nine homers and 50 RBI each of which placed 23rd in the FSL. Usually hitting in a prime RBI slot between 3-5 in the lineup and against the highest level of competition he’s ever played at, Norwood’s stolen base total took a bit of a hit but he was still able to swipe 14 bags, good for second on the Hammerheads and 22nd in the league. Whether it be by way of the hit or by way of his improved walk rate, he got on base at a .347 clip, which led Jupiter and ranked 16th in the FSL.

Norwood’s hitting style and swing favor pull but approaching with a balanced load allows him to reach all fields. The work Norwood continues to do in the gym from his senior year collegiate days when he weighed in at 210 to last year when he dropped 20 pounds to come in a 190 has continued to pay dividends for Norwood. Due to his physical regiment, Norwood is getting around on his swings much better and covering the plate much more advantageously. All of this has spelled out a much more complete offensive game for Norwood who has gone from being an all-or-nothing pure power threat to becoming more of an on-base threat, proven by last year’s 60 point uptick in OBP to .347 from the .284 marker he posted in his first 20 pro games in 2014. What’s even better is the drop in weight hasn’t resulted in a power struggle for Norwood whatsoever. Although much leaner, he still collected 37 XBHs in one of the most pitcher friendly leagues in Minor League Baseball last season. While he will still struggle with breaking pitches on the outer half, Norwood’s ability to adjust his game around his body and become a much more all-around offensive weapon is very encouraging for his future.

Despite OPSing .744 last year, Norwood enters 2017 as a somewhat puzzling repeater of a level of the minors for the first time. However, if his play persists including his power production, improved knowledge of the zone, above average speed and abilities to cover all the ground necessary in right field (1.94 range factor last season), run good routes and make strong accurate throws (seven assists in 2016), it will not take him long to make the jump to AA. Still just 24, Norwood, already a College World Series hero, sets up as one of the more intriguing under-the-radar high ceiling prospects in the organization.

Avery Romero was selected and signed by the Marlins out of high school in the third round of the 2012 Draft. Entering his fifth year in the organization, it’s been an up and down career so far for the now 23-year-old. Romero broke out in 2013 with a .297/.357/.411 campaign for the Muckdogs, averages which ranked 7th, 20th and 22nd in the NYPL, along with 18 doubles which was tied for third and 30 RBI which tied him for 20th despite playing in just 56 of the league’s 74 games. From there, he moved to the Grasshoppers where he had an even more impressive season, hitting .320/.366/.429. He was once again near the top of his league in BA (5th), improved to 14th in OBP, and ranked inside the top 25 in slugging. His surprising power, especially for a guy of his 5’11”, 195 stature, persisted as he collected 23 doubles and slammed five homers. These exports earned Romero his call to A+ to end the 2014 season where he finished off his already strong season even stronger, hitting .320/.366/.429 in his first 100 ABs and allowed him to enter the next season as the Marlins’ fifth best prospect.

However, that 2015 season which Romero spent entirely in A+ was a lot less kind. That season met Romero with a stunt in his growth as he managed to slash just .259/.315/.314, his K rate rose from 11% to 14%. After hitting 32 total doubles in 2014, he managed just 14. Even though all of this came by way of an almost exactly neutral .297 BABIP, none of it stopped the Marlins from rushing Romero to AA to begin last season. After a dismal .190/.299/.290 initial 36 games with the Suns, the Marlins sent Romero back to the Hammerheads. There, an even further sub-par season greeted him as he hit just .253/.314/.335 in 75 games. The one silver lining from 2015, his improved walk rate of 7.5%, shrunk back to 6.8%. However, the strikeouts persisted as he K’d at a 13.2% rate.

While it was probably a mistake for the Marlins to rush Romero to AA last year after such a dismally average 2015 in which he sat right around the mendoza line and while it probably did more harm than good for his growth, Romero is still just 23 and still honing a unique skill set. When batting, Romero crowds the zone and attacks it from a low athletic stance which allows the 5’11” infielder to cut down even more on an already small strike zone. His swing which he times from a front foot trigger and steps to the ball nicely from, holds good bat speed giving him the ability to wait out breaking pitches of any kind. As mentioned, Romero does hold above average power especially for a guy his size but he is more a gap to gap doubles threat than a home run threat. Realizing that has been and will continue to be Romero’s biggest challenge as his biggest weakness is trying to do too much with his swings at the expense of his balance. Realizing the limits of your offensive game is a big step for any prospect to make and it will be even harder for Romero who is feeling the pressure of falling out of the organization’s top 30 prospect rankings this season for the first time in his career. Playing at third base, a very high power expectant position, full time as he did last season will only work further against the gifted infielder’s psyche so the Marlins would be wise to move him back to his more natural position and a spot where his gap hitting game will be more valuable, second base. In 2,531.2 career innings there before his spending more games at third for the first time in his career last year, Romero has posted a ridiculous 4.46 range factor and has only committed 49 errors in 1,365 chances (.964 fielding percentage).

Completing Romero’s game and getting his production back on track after his sophomore slump 2015 and his ill-advised promotion to AA for a third of his season and an equally disadvantageous move to third base full-time in 2016 will be a dual effort between him and the team. But should Romero improve his discipline in terms of not trying to swing out of his shoes so often and instead maintain the softness in his hands and stop falling off to his pull side, his K rates which soared last year should lower and his walk rate should improve. Management can make this a much easier process for Romero if they move him back back to second base where he has much more experience and plays his best defense. There, he won’t feel the pressure of being relied upon to produce bigger power numbers and thus be allowed to comfortably be himself. Should that two-way street run smoothly and should Romero grow into even more strength on top of his already plus power game as his 23-year-old body completes its development, Romero could become a very valuable, very rare breed: a complete hitting bat with the ability to both get on base and drive runs in on top a wizard-like glove and pair of feet in the middle of the field. With a ceiling I equate to Josh Harrison only with better patience and a better K/BB, Romero may be out of sight within the Marlins’ top 30 prospects (according to MLB.com), but he should definitely not be out of mind.

Projected Rotation

1. Jeff Brigham
2. Jorgan Cavanerio
3. Chris Sadberry
4. Felipe Gonzalez

Jeff Brigham is a Dodgers’ fourth round draft pick out of the University of Washington in 2014. After sub-par years in 2012 and 2013, he earned his draft stock that year by having a 90 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.13 WHIP junior season. He finished off the 2014 calendar year by getting his feet wet in affiliated ball, tossing to the tune of a 3.58 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP and a .268 BAA in 33.2 innings for the Ogden Raptors.

Enter 2015. This is where the mismanagement of Brigham by the Dodgers began and his career with them started to end. Just seven innings into his full season ball career, LA, possibly feeling the pressure of Brigham’s high age of 23 for such a low level of competition, thought it wise to allow Brigham to just about completely skip low A and promote him straight to single A advanced Rancho Cucamonga. That season, Brigham struggled mightily. In 17 games and 68 innings, his ERA reached an ugly 5.96, third worst in the California League, by way of a 1.68 WHIP, fourth worst and a .286 BAA. However, all of these struggles would prove to be a blessing in disguise for both Brigham and the Marlins.

On July 30, 2016, Brigham was thought by the Dodgers to be nothing more than a throw in chip in the trade that brought them Mat Latos and Michael Morse at the expense of Victor Araujo and Kevin Guzman. By joining Miami, Brigham also joined the pitchers’ haven Florida State League allowing him to get his career back on track. There, in the last two years, Brigham has become quite possibly the most valuable peice on either side of that trade.

Upon joining Jupiter, Brigham finished out his 2015 campaign with 33.2 innings worth of 1.87 ERA, 1.28 WHIP ball, a small sample but nonetheless a feel-good ending to an otherwise depressing season. In 2016, after he struggled through an injury, a trip to the DL and an overall slow 5.73 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, .269 BAA first half, Brigham became one of the most reliable and effective starting pitchers in the organization in the second half. From June 25 through September 3, Brigham started 13 games, averaging over five innings and an even three runs per as well as an overall 1.17 WHIP. Brigham, who got stronger and stronger, healthier and healthier the later the season got, struck out 21% of his opponents in those 13 starts and one relief appearance and walked just 7%.

From Tommy John in 2012 that caused him to miss an entire season of play, to his struggles in 2015 that caused him to be pawned off by the Dodgers to undergoing a second surgery and making another lengthy to the DL last year, Brigham has already been through the ringer in his baseball career and has been forced to grow up quickly as a pro. It speaks volumes to his tenacity and grit that he is where he is today, heading into 2017 arguably the healthiest he has ever been after his most successful season at the highest level he’s ever played at. Throwing downhill from a rocker step wind up and full arm circle release, Brigham steps into his pitches with tons of power and generates great downhill velocity. His heat which shows good arm side run can get as high as 97 but, considering his past health problems and the fear of flare ups, will usually be harnessed in the 92-94 MPH range. Brigham’s second pitch is a slider which sits in the mid 80s and offsets his fastball positively. A lot of reason for his success in the second half of 2016 was due to his gaining more control of the pitch and being able to spot it on the low inner half against righties. Combined with the drop in velo from his heat which runs outside against same side hitters, it became more of a perfect complimentary offering and he gained the ability to pitch off of it. Brigham also made strides with his changeup in the second half last year, flashing added depth and good command although it can be a bit inconsistent. Despite the encouraging uptick in Ks in the second half last year, Brigham has a more vast history of being a to-contact guy and that reputation should follow him into the upper minors. If he hopes to stick as a rotation starter, he will need to further develop his changeup into a more reliable plus pitch. It has shown flashes but it is not there yet. That along with staying healthy will be the primary areas of focus for Brigham. If he comes back throwing the same way he did to end 2016, the Marlins’ 17th rated prospect is a prime candidate to get the promotion to AA with the floor of a multiple inning reliever and the ceiling of a back end starter.

Projected Team Stats

72-68
.242/.329/.315
65 HR/264 XBH
1,185 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

2016 Batavia Muckdogs Season Preview

Batavia Muckdogs 2016 Season Preview


2015 Team Stats

31-44
.252/.320/.347
25 HR/176 XBH
649.2 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.459 WHIP

With the arrival of summer come the arrival of the dog days of the year. Not just in regards to the hottest outside temperatures of the year but also in relation to the beginning of the New York Penn League short season and with it the start of the next Batavia Muckdogs’ short season campaign. This year’s Muckdogs will welcome back some familiar names from the organization from the past year such as Isaiah White, Samuel Castro and Ryan McKay while also housing draftees participating in their first pro season such as Reilly Hovis, Corey Bird, J.J. Gould and Aaron Knapp to make up a Dogs’ team chock full of young talented men waiting to prove themselves worthy of the title prospect.

Angel EspadaLeading this next crop of potential Marlins in to battle will be manager Angel Espada who returns for his fifth straight year as a Marlins’ short season coach and fourth straight season as the Muckdogs’ skipper. Espada is a former player who was drafted in 1994 by the Atlanta Braves. He was a blip on the radar on a couple of occasions including during a .301/.368/.345 campaign as a 19-year-old in the Appalachian League in which he ranked as the league’s 20th best hitter but overall was just a .277/.328/.317 career hitter in five minor league seasons, all below high A before he confined himself to the independent leagues in 1998. He enjoyed a great career as an unaffiliated player, slashing .311/.356/.375 over nine seasons, most of which came as a member of the Bridgeport Bluefish of the Atlantic League including a career best .356/.405/.440 campaign in 1999 which made him the league’s batting champion. He also stole 40 bases, second most in the league. Espada repeated as batting champ in 2000, slashing .337/388/.403, barely beating out the next closest competition by less than a single hit. After two subpar years in 2001 and 2002, a 27-year-old Espada was his league’s tenth best for average hitter in 2003 by way of a .323/.370/.393 line. He appeared on the Atlantic League leader board for the last time in 2005 with a 17th best .309/.345/.386 effort before retiring in 2007. Known as a patient top of the order hitter with plus speed and a snappy bat as well as solid defensive skills which attributed to a 4.65 career range factor with eligibility at shortstop, second base and all three outfield spots, Espada was a tactically sound player whose wealth of knowledge has benefited Marlins minor leaguers since 2009. He comes in to 2016 with a career 139-162 managerial record. Filling out Espada’s staff will be his former teammate in the independent leagues in the late 90s following a .263/.326/.408 minor league career and an eight year major league career Luis Quinones (hitting coach), former Muckdog turned bench coach Thomas “T.J.” Gamba, and former Red Sox pitching prospect beginning his second year coaching hurlers and first at the affiliated level, Chad Rhoades. Last season he coached the independent Florence Freedom to a 3.69 ERA, third best in the Frontier League.

Lineup

OF Corey Bird
SS Samuel Castro
OF Jhonny Santos
2B J.J. Gould
OF Isaiah White
DH Aaron Knapp
C Pablo Garcia
2B Rony Cabrera
1B Joseph Chavez

Corey Bird is a 20-year-old 6’0″ 180 pound outfielder out of Marshall University and the Marlins’ seventh round draft pick from the draft earlier this month. A two sport athlete in high school where he hit a ridiculous .457 over a four year campaign was selected to two All-Tournament teams, was his county’s Player of the Year once and West Virginia’s representative as Gatorade’s Player of the Year once, Bird began his college career with the Thundering Herd in 2014. Despite missing seven games at the beginning of the year due to a toe injury that season, Bird came back to lead his team in BA (.292), hits, walks and steals (which he was second in his entire conference in) and place second in OBP (.370) and SLG (.321). At one point that year, he had a 16 game on base streak. These exports garnered him Conference USA All-Freshman honors and second team honors on the All C-USA squad. Bird showed off his stamina in his final two college seasons, starting in 107 of 110 of the Herd’s contests. After again leading the team in multiple categories in 2015 including BA (.307), runs (34), and total bases (77) as well as stealing 10 more bags and placing second on the team in OBP (.377), Bird ended his college career this year by appearing in all 55 of Marshall’s games hitting an even .300 and, by way of a career best 26/24 BB/K, a .375 OBP. In the stolen base category, Bird made good on his surname, flying around the bases and totaling 34 steals, most in Conference USA. His 44 runs scored were 10th most in C-USA. He was once again named to the C-USA All Tournament team and earned All-Conference USA second team honors. He comes to the pros and to the Marlins as a career .301/.374/.342 hitter with a 58/15 SB/CS or a 79% success rate swiping bags. He also boasts a more than respectable 68/76 BB/K. As his playing time in college indicates, Bird is an extremely athletic young man, so much so he earned best athlete amongst all C-USA players this season from Baseball America. At the plate, his stance matches that reputation as he cuts down on the strike zone by standing from a straight away but very low stance. He waits out pitchers well, often committing to pitches late but his slappy bat and speed allow him to get away with having very little power to speak of. In Bird, the Marlins knew they weren’t getting a guy who is going to slug much of anything but rather a guy who is going to play the catalyst and get on base and in to scoring position ahead of their heavier bats. In addition to his athleticism, Bird boasts plus defense at all three outfield spots, making him very easy to get in to lineups and in to games as a sub. His current makeup has him fitting that of a prototypical fourth outfielder and defensive replacement, but with work, he has plenty of potential to become an every day starter.

Infielder Samuel Castro came to the Marlins organization in 2014 as an international signing out of the Dominican. He enters his first pro season at the ripe age of 18. At just 5’10”, 160, Castro has a very immature body but he has great instincts at on the infield where he is a natural shortstop but with good reads off the bat and a plus arm, can slot in at any position numbers 3 to 5. As you may have guessed he has very little to no power but, from both sides of the plate, he already has a good feel for the strikezone, good bat control and speed, a solid natural approach and all the willingness in the world to learn. He will be a fun prospect to watch grow.

J.J. GouldJ.J. Gould was the Marlins’ 24th rounder in this year’s draft. Originally a Florida State Seminole, Gould appeared in just 15 games in Tallahassee before making the move to the much lesser known Eastern Florida State College in Cocoa, Florida before ending his three year collegiate career at Jacksonville University. Between Eastern Florida State and Jacksonville though, Gould flashed the assets that made him attractive to the Seminoles out of high school, a skill-set that would have seen him taken much earlier in the draft had he stuck there. In 2014 as an Eastern Florida Titan, Gould, facing the sixth most plate appearances in his league, placed on league leader boards in OBP (.445) and OPS (.951). His 84 total bases ranked 10th in the league and his six triples placed him in a second place tie. He also flashed a great situational approach with the third most sacrifice hits and fifth most sacrifice flies. Overall, he slashed .325/.445/.506 with a more than respectable 33/46 BB/K. To round out his game, all Gould accomplished was becoming his conference’s defensive player of the year. Last year, Gould returned to Div. I ball and appeared in 55 of 56 Jacksonville University games. While his total numbers looked much different than those during his days at the lesser levels in Div. II, Gould still placed sixth on his team in OBP (.362) and his glove stayed gold as he continued to show terrific range and contributed to 13 double plays. He was also somewhat of a road warrior for the Jacksonville U Dolphins as he hit .296 away from their home field. He comes to the professional ranks as a career .294/.401/.431 bat. Leaning over the plate from a low athletic stance, Gould uses a light front foot timing trigger, active hips and a turned in back knee to get around on a lofty line drive swing. He possesses great bat speed and soft hands, making him both an on-base and power threat, a rarity found at second base. Gould is still a bit raw when it comes to knowledge of the strike zone, something he will look to improve on in his early days in the minors. If his coaches are able to get him to cut down on K totals, Gould could become a Chase Utley-esque threat with the defense to match.

Isaiah White is a speedy outfielder who spent his first pro season in the Gulf Coast League after being drafted out of high school in the third round of last year’s draft. Despite being described as extremely raw upon being drafted, White flirted with a .300 BA, ending the season at .294. He flashed his speed by stealing 13 bags which tied him for a team high and placed him and teammate Garvis Lara in a tie for ninth most in their league. Much like his new teammate, Bird, White’s best assets are his jets and his glove. He goes gap to gap with ease in center field, reads pitchers well and gets good jumps upon committing to a stolen base opportunity. The difference between Bird and White, although you wouldn’t know it by looking at his 6’0″ 170 pound frame, is that White has some hidden power. With a swing that has some slight uppercut loft, White gets his weight moving backward well and points his front foot timing trigger towards the ball. His extremely quick swing and ability to maintain looseness set him apart from most guys his size in that he can put quite the charge into the ball when he squares up. Although he isn’t currently nor will probably ever be a guy who hits a ton of balls over the fence, he flashes the potential to reach outfield gaps. Should his hits reach the wall, his speed will turn them in to easy doubles if not more. Coming from a tiny K-12 North Carolina school which had never produced major league talent before his draft year, White will definitely need some nurturing but after his success with the GCL Marlins, things are definitely looking in favor of White who just turned 19 in January. We will be following this project closely.

Aaron Knapp is the Marlins’ eighth round pick from this year’s draft out of the University of California. After enjoying a decorated high school career in the Southern California area which included a .434/.536/.645 junior campaign in which he was selected to multiple honors including All-State, All Section, All City and All League as well as Rawlings All-American and Perfect Game USA honorable mentions, Knapp became the third member of his family after his brother Andrew who is currently pitching in the Phillies organization and his father Mike to attend the University of California. On top of owning an epic mustache during his days as a Golden Bear, he possessed a .272/.333/.347 career line over three seasons. After a .235/.302/.304 inaugural campaign as a freshman, Knapp made great strides in his sophomore year appearing in all 57 of Cal’s games and becoming a .310/.376/.375 hitter. He placed second on his team in BA, third on the squad in walks (25), and second in triples (4). The speedster who also was a standout as a football safety in high school stole a team-high 12 bases and scored a team-high 45 runs, marks that placed 11th and 9th in the entire Pac 12. Knapp’s four triples placed 7th in his league and his 232 ABs placed 7th. With reports out on him this year as he appeared in 53 of the Bears’ games this season, Knapp fell back to earth a bit overall, hitting .251/.302/.340 but still managed to add to already fantastic clutch stats including a 30-91 mark with runners in scoring position by driving home a career high 26 runs. He again lead his squad with 10 steals, which ranked 10th in the league and triples (7) which ranked 2nd in the league. The blazing speed he showed during his entire amateur career led scouts to ranking at a 60 out of 80 skill and it is what he should continue to base his approach off of. More loft to his swing last year is what led to his sub-par numbers slash line wise. In his first year as a pro, Knapp should return to his roots as a slap and slash bat whose good first step out of the box and steamy jets force infielders to make mistakes and lead to high OBP numbers, prototypical of a leadoff hitter. A split stance hitter whose front hip points towards first base, he does need to work on staying true through the ball rather than trying to run before he finds the barrel as he was doing very well last year. Knapp hurt himself and his draft stock trying to become something he isn’t ever going to be; a fly ball power threat. He undoubtedly realizes that and will attempt to turn back time as a Muckdog. Should he do so, thanks again to his speed, his fantastic range and playmaking ability as a center fielder despite average arm skills make him close to an all-around athlete and a future staple at the top of any lineup.

Pitching Rotation

1. Reilly Hovis
2. Ryan McKay
3. Jose Diaz
4. Travis Neubeck
5. Jordan Holloway

Reilly Hovis is the Marlins’ 9th round pick from last season out of powerhouse North Carolina. He pitched primarily out of the pen in his freshman year holding down a 2.36 ERA and a .164 BAA in 34.1 IP. Despite the success, Hovis returned to the pen in 2014. That season, Hovis was one of the ACC’s very best, ranking fourth in the league with a ridiculous 11.39 K/9. Despite pitching almost exclusively as a reliever (1 start), Hovis had a team high 9 wins. He was again next to impossible to hit, holding down a .194 BAA, allowing just 8 XBHs including 2 HR. Despite pitching in at least 20 less innings than three of his teammates, Hovis bordered on totalling a team high in Ks (81 where the team high was 83). His ERA of 2.25 bested the rest of the Heels’ rotation by at least .4 and was second best on the entire team. The only one of his teammates to best him pitched in nearly half as many innings. At that point, Hovis was slated to go no later than round three in the upcoming MLB Draft. However, before season’s end, he underwent Tommy John surgery for a right forearm strain which caused many teams to look past him. The Marlins believe they got a steal by drafting him 266th overall — and so do I. With a high leg kick and a snap through quick delivery after dropping his arm down below his knee, the hard to pick up and quick to the plate delivery is finished off by spectacular stuff. Usually starting hitters off with a heater that sits in the 93-95 MPH range from a downward plane, his best secondary offering is a slider that has 10-4 movement and sits in the 84 MPH slot. He can throw the slide piece to both sides of the plate and paint both sides of the black, inside outing hitters with ease, making it very much a plus out pitch. Hovis also has a split changeup that rests at the 86 MPH slot. It is the least developed of the pitches in his arsenal but because of his technically sound repeatable approach from his athletic build and rarely wavering arm speed, it is still an above average offering, flashing good run from the inside out and late fade. Rounding out his repertoire, Hovis also holds a cut fastball that was a go-to pitch for him in college. It sits around the 89 MPH range and has drop-off-the-table type movement thanks to minimal backspin. The pitch made plenty an ACC hitter look foolish during Hovis’ days in Tarheel blue as he got them to commit to swinging at what they thought was a straight fastball before the ball wound up 15 inches lower in the back of the catcher’s glove. Should he show no ill affects from his surgery which was reported to be an undaunted success, Hovis, with great control and fantastic command and confidence on the mound along with good feel for all of his pitches and the ability to throw all of them in any count which leads to a well rounded deceptive arsenal especially for a heady kid who reasons and manages his outings as well as he throws them, has the ability to become a back-end rotation starter. At the very least, he is a future forefront of the bullpen. Don’t be surprised if you see this guy’s name surfacing in the majors within the next three years.

Ryan McKayRyan McKay is the Marlins’ 11th round pick from last season out of Satellite High School in Satellite Beach, Florida. After striking out 93 and holding down a 0.63 ERA as a senior, he spent his first pro season in the Gulf Coast league, where he posted a record of 1-3 in 10 games, seven starts and 34.2 IP. His control was worrisome as a first year pro as he walked 21, struck out 17, let up hits at a .300 clip and experienced both a heightened WHIP (1.82) and ERA (4.15). McKay has the stuff to succeed including a fastball which has grown in velo from 86 MPH in his junior year to where it currently sits at 94 with the probability to tick up even more as he grows. His best secondary offering, his curveball falls in at 74 MPH, giving him an impressive 20 MPH velo differential. The curve has been flashing plus since scouts started noticing him in his junior season. With tight spin and late bite, McKay has the ability to paint corners with the pitch, usually throwing it to the outer half utilizing it’s late movement to back door his opponents. His mix in pitch is an 82 MPH changeup. He has made strides with the pitch in a short amount of time since first developing it in his sophomore season. Although he still needs to work on getting his arm angle consistent and doesn’t have much command over the pitch, it flashes good downward run. McKay also owns a slider but he rarely goes to it. Right now, it’s nothing more than very much an experiment. While his other three pitches, namely the heat and curve, show plenty of promise, the challenge for McKay has been and will be growing in to his big 6’4″, 195 pound frame. He is slow and methodical to the plate and throws from a high 3/4 delivery on a downward plane after a full arm circle, there are times when McKay can look dominant, there were more frequent times during his first pro year where he looked very uncomfortable on the mound, unable to get his long limbs under control, struggling with his release point and his balance on his follow through. If McKay is going to succeed over the long term as a starter, he needs to make some mechanical adjustments to iron out these flaws. If he is able to do so, he has the stuff to succeed as a back of the rotation arm or long reliever.

Projected Team Stats

27-48
.256/.317/.334
21 HR/144 XBH
652 IP, 4.31 ERA, 1.462 WHIP

Jacksonville Suns 2016 (Rest Of) Season Preview

Jacksonville Suns (Rest Of) Season Preview

Up until this point, previews for teams have been my projections. With lineups released and the season a month old, this preview will be based upon factual evidence. Players I have already covered in previous previews who happened to make it to a higher level will be marked with a * and my writing on them may be a bit brief. For more info on those players, visit my previous team previews.

2015 Team Stats

57-81
.247/.320/.355
71 HR/304 XBH
1204.2 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.362 WHIP

Lineup

CF Yefri Perez*
RF Jeremias Pineda
LF Austin Dean
1B Brady Shoemaker*
DH Moises Sierra
SS J.T. Riddle
3B Matt Juengel
C Francisco Arcia
2B Avery Romero*

Making it rain baseballs. Something that is frowned upon and disallowed at every bar and club in North America. That is until this year. Because that is exactly how the Jacksonville Suns will be hoping Austin Dean, Brady Shoemaker, Avery Romero and the rest of their 2016 squad will christen their brand new left field gazebo bar and will make into a tradition all season long.

Yefri PerezNo matter if you have the ridiculous raw speed needed to label you the fastest man the organization has ever seen and to steal an absurd 71 bases, most in your A+ league in over five years, if you only are able to muster a sub-300 OBP, you likely aren’t ready to crack the upper levels of the minors. Accordingly, I predicted to be the case for Yefri Perez after he slashed just .240/.286/.269 and struck out 95 times for the Hammerheads last season. Long story short on Yefri (pun intended), is that his swing was entirely too aggressive and long in 2015 and he used it far too often. With over half of his success reaching base coming off of bunts and slow-rolling grounders, Perez was far too aggressive early in the count and remained so when down two strikes, chasing pitches off the outer half and pulling the trigger on anything close. Still, stealing upwards of 70 bags and setting a franchise record despite only being on base 20% of the time in garnered Perez some worthy recognition as he was selected as an FSL All-Star and at seasons end, invited to attend Marlins’ spring training. It was evidently at the latter of those in which Perez proved he made the necessary adjustments needed to move to AA Jacksonville. Perez stuck around the big league team for nearly all of spring, reaping the benefits of his fellow players and coaches. Early on in the Suns’ season, it appears as though that experience is paying dividends for Yefri. Appearing to have put on a little bit of weight, Perez is using it to his advantage by executing a much better timed swing but not before he maintains the looseness in his hands much longer, taking away his previous tendency to commit early and get out in front. Because of this, would-be swings and misses, something Perez did far too frequently last year, are turning into at the very least foul balls, prolonging his ABs. Furthermore, he is also waiting longer to commit to bunts which is giving him an extra step towards first base upon a later infield reaction (not that he needs it) and what should equate to a higher success rate as it will allow him to square up the break of pitches more advantageously. While the sample size is indeed tiny and while Perez’s 2015 got off to a very similar start through his first week of play before he began showing his true colors, this new, improved, stronger, more patient, and more technically sound version of the 25-year-old has allowed him to show initial success at a higher level of competition that I did not think he was even remotely ready for. While it remains to be seen if Perez can keep this up over the course of a full year or even longer than a seven day span, the early product of Perez’s game with the Suns is indeed encouraging and it has all come while he has maintained his blazing speed as he as already stolen 5 bases in 5 attempts. Perez’s speed also serves him well in the field, giving him the ability to play virtually anywhere. His ability to cover all the ground needed for any position makes him playable at all three outfield spots and both middle infield spots. He makes good reads off the bat and runs good routes to the ball. On the infield, he exhibits good footwork, quick soft hands and great gap coverage. Because his outfield throwing arm is average at best (just 28 outfield assists in nearly 3,000 innings), he lines up more advantageously as a second baseman but, either way, he isn’t a hard guy to get in to games. Although he is 25 and first getting a taste of AA, if his early season plate presence and improved swing continue to show themselves, Yefri will become a fantastic spark plug bat off the bench and late inning defensive replacement. He has the makeup to be the type of utility player every team seeks.

Even on the occasion that pitchers manage to get around Perez this year, there will be little time to breathe in the way of harnessing speed as they will be forced to stare down Jeremias Pineda. Signed near the very end of the offseason, Pineda is a 25-year-old formerly of the Twins organization who spent last season playing in the Mexican leagues. Despite baseball south of the border being known as being very hitter friendly, Pineda still posted an impressive catalyst type slash line in 2015, going .285/.362/.339. It is the hope that Pineda’s success in Mexico translates back to the majors and his Marlins’ career. For that to happen, Pineda will need to improve upon a raw offensive approach, something he hasn’t been able to do in five years, which already ended his American majors career once, and despite the good numbers on the surface of his Mexican league season last year, still caused him to strike out a ridiculous 168 times to 71 walks in a league not known at all for pitching prowess. So much about Pineda reminds me of Yefri. He’s 25, he’s a switch hitter, he’s extremely fast (though not quite as fast as Perez), most of his offensive success comes from beating out infield hits and he is entirely too aggressive at the plate, especially when behind in the count. Hope is that these players, who will be hitting behind one another, can feed off each other and help each other succeed and turn them in to the extremely valuable utility players they have the capability of being. Pineda may be a step slower that Perez speed-wise but his outfield throwing arm is that step then a few more ahead of Yefri’s. For that reason, many of his starts should come in the outfield this season though, again like Perez, his versatility will allow the Suns get him into the lineup in many if not all games.

Austin DeanAs he proved in the Arizona Fall League after a very good year considering it was in the pitcher’s haven of Jupiter last full season, the Marlins may really have something in Austin Dean. Following a .268/.318/.366 year with the Hammerheads which led his team and placed 18th in the Florida State League and earned him a FSL All Star Game invite as well as an invite to the Arizona Fall League where he hit .323/.364/.452 and made his second All-Star game of the year, Dean comes to the Suns riding high. What he has to thank for his success is a balanced approach, including the ability to wait pitches out until they are finished breaking and a short quick line drive stroke, backed by a solid lower half. His solid and still improving plate vision makes him a pesky out to get. He gets in the mind of pitchers, frustrating them by trying not to do too much with pitches out of his reach but rather just foul them off, forcing pitchers to make mistakes. Dean’s swing isn’t one that’s going to warrant him a ton of long balls but rather a prototypical short line drive stroke (as proven by a career 18.66 LD% coming into this year) that has the ability to reach all fields. As proven by a 77/148 BB/K over the course of his first two full seasons in the minors, Dean also isn’t afraid to take a walk if he doesn’t get what he likes. His patience, swing and plus speed which includes a good first step out of the box and warranted him 18 steals last year make him a fantastic future leadoff or two slot candidate. Dean will be and, by way of a .306/.416/.472 through his first 20 games in AA which includes an OBP that is currently fifth in the Southern League and a SLG and BA which rank 15th making him one of if not the best all-around bat thus far, already has been a fun project to watch fill out.

Brady ShoemakerIn Brady Shoemaker, we have a guy who must have done something drastic to someone within the organization to warrant the treatment he has received in his Marlins career because as of late, the organization has done everything possible to hold him back. It all started innocently enough for Shoemaker with a bout of bad luck. After being claimed off waivers by the Marlins in 2013 after he spent that entire season out of baseball, Shoemaker returned to the minors with a vengeance in 2014, hitting .274/.374/.433 in AA Jacksonville. That year, he either led or was a close second in nearly every major offensive category amongst full time Suns including HR (12), OBP (.374), OPS (.808), walks (67), BB/K (.74) and RBI (71). Amongst qualifiers who appeared in at least 100 Southern League games, Shoemaker’s .374 OBP ranked 10th and his .808 OPS ranked 12th. His accomplishments warranted him a well-deserved call-up to AAA in 2015. At the highest level he’s ever played at, a 27-year-old Shoemaker quickly became one of the Zephyrs top players. Heading into a game on May 24th, Shoemaker was hitting a robust .310/.393/.509 and looked to be the next man in line for a call-up and probably would have been when Giancarlo Stanton hit the season ending DL with a hand injury on June 27th, leaving the Marlins scrambling for outfielders. Moreoever, Shoemaker, who also plays first, would have been the best choice considering first baseman Justin Bour’s struggles against lefties beginning to come to fruition and the fact that Shoemaker’s mashing versus them which amounted to the tune of a .302/.402/.573 that year was also beginning to rear it’s beautiful head. However, May 24th is when Shoemaker’s run of rough luck began. In the Zephyrs’ game that night against El Paso, Shoemaker broke a pinkie finger, putting him on the shelf for the rest of May, the entire month of June and the beginning of July, causing him to miss his window and an opportunity to make his major league debut. Being the consummate professional that he is and being no stranger to missing time only to come back even better, Shoemaker returned on July 7th and although his second half was, quite understandably after breaking a finger in his dominant hand, wasn’t as good as his first half as he struggled to find gaps as regularly as he did before the injury, Shoemaker remained one of the Zephyrs’ key contributors. By season’s end, he was arguably their full-season MVP, ending 2015 with a .284/.359/.417 line. His .776 OPS ranked third on the team as did his .417 SLG, once again not just making him a candidate but rather the prime candidate to become Justin Bour’s platoon partner at first base in 2016 after Bour ended the year with a .221/.293/.279 against southpaws. Even after the signing of career reclamation project Chris Johnson to a major league contract, Shoemaker at the very least still seemed lined up to make the roster as the fifth outfielder, especially after he began his spring by hitting (), one of the best bats in camp. However, that didn’t stop the Marlins from inexplicably making Shoemaker part of the first round of spring cuts. He watched as Cole Gillespie earned the nod as the fifth outfielder and planned to make the trip back to New Orleans. But the hits didn’t stop coming there. At the end of spring training, Shoemaker wasn’t assigned to New Orleans. He was, once again for reasons lost on everyone who has followed his career of late, assigned all the way down to AA Jacksonville. It would seem as though frustration has understandably so finally gotten the best of the now 28-year-old who could be playing in the majors and definitely should be playing above AA as his season with the Suns has gotten off to just a .212 start. While there is no doubt that the power hitting, balanced approach hitter that Shoemaker is and as his OBP (.356) and SLG (.353) are already proving, he will (continue to) improve upon that line as the season progresses but whether he makes the majors with the Marlins or not seems to be very much up in the air. Simply put, the guy can’t catch a break and the organization doesn’t seem to be willing to help him along.

In addition to a best-selling jersey waiting to happen, the Marlins have potential five-tool talent in J.T. Riddle, who will man the infield for the Suns this year. After hitting .286/.322/.405 and receiving All-Star honors in Jupiter last year, Riddle, a 13th round draft pick, comes to the Suns as a .274/.316/.373 lifetime MiLB hitter. Swinging with a light balanced load, the 6’1″ 180 pounder is a mostly singles bat but he packs a bit of hidden power and will surprise with his ability to hit gaps. Add to the fact that he still has time to add power by way of growing physically and it’s easy to see why Riddle was named the Marlins’ top hitting prospect in 2015 and remains a top 10 organizational prospect this year. Despite owning a short stroke, Riddle is a bit too aggressive at the plate, making him susceptible to the K and the reason why he hasn’t posted an OBP over the .325 mark at any level and something the Marlins would like to see temper as he makes his way through the upper minors. Riddle made quite the impression with the Suns in the second half of 2015 when he hit .289/.323/.422 for them and has continued to set fire to Southern League pitching on fire in his first 23 games in Jacksonville this year, hitting .279/.330/.395 with 7 XBH and 18 RBI. Though he is a natural second baseman, the Marlins have been giving Riddle playing time at other infield spots in hopes that he can become a quality utility player and lefty off the bench, ala Derek Dietrich and, although his speed is average, he has the arm strength and the quickness needed to cover all the ground and do so. However, if he continues to show improved pop as he grows into his body along with the raw talent that he owns behind his approach and maintains similar success against righties and lefties, Riddle has the opportunity to turn into an every day starter. He is a piece very much worth watching as he progresses this season.

Avery Romero mans the other up-the-middle spot for the Suns this season despite an average at best year in Jupiter last year in which he hit just .259/.315/.314, all career lows for the 22-year-old. While some of that dumbing down of his slash line can be blamed on the pitcher’s paradise that is Roger Dean Stadium, especially considering he came in to 2015 having never failed to hit at least .276/.341/.391 over the course of a full season and was coming off of a .320/.367/.423 year in between Greensboro and his first 26 games as a Hammerhead, Romero did exhibit some worrisome setbacks last year, including a career worst 71/38 K/BB and a 1.29 GO/AO, his worst since his days in rookie ball. Despite exhibiting a good short line drive swing that generates a lot of contact and puts his 1/100 rating in that category at 81 and his career line drive percentage at 21%, Romero has always been more of a free swinger rather than a count worker and has been known to press when frustrated. The Marlins are hoping that immaturity is the reason for his struggles last yar and that with a change of scenery to the much more neutral Southern League as well as a year’s worth more of experience under his belt, those tensions will ease. Defensively, Romero made the switch from shortstop to second base after high school. Thanks to Romero’s athletic frame as well as his quick hands and swift footwork following him from the plate into the field, he has made the move rather well overall, attributing to a 4.49 career range factor at the number 4 position. Last year, he contributed to a career high 79 double plays. However, Romero also proved he still has some growing to do, arm accuracy and decision wise as he rushed a lot of erratic throws at 2B and also committed a career high 20 errors but that is a flaw that should work itself out with more innings and more age. Whether Romero makes his ETA next season or not will depend upon his ability to improve upon his plate presence and patience and this season is his make it or break it moment. So far in 2016, it hasn’t happened as Romero is hitting just .170/.286/.283 but there is still plenty of baseball left to play. We will be monitoring him closely throughout the course of the year.

Pitching Rotation

1. Austin Brice
2. Jake Esch
3. Jarlin Garcia
4. Tim Berry

Austin BriceAustin Brice is a huge 6’4″ 240 pound 9th round draft pick from 2010 who is impressive at times and has made strides improving his arsenal in recent years but who just can’t seem to put it all together. The physical specimen is an intimidating force for opposing hitters to stare down on the mound and he ramps up the kind of velo to match, occasionally throwing his pitch-off primary fastball in the mid-90s but usually sitting in the 90-92 MPH range. His best secondary pitch is a slider which he just recently got a feel for in the last two seasons. Sitting in the 82-86 MPH range, Brice will throw the pitch in any count and has the ability to hit corners with it when it is on. His curve has similar velo and when he is throwing it well, has good 11-4 break with some late bite. Notice, however, that in describing all of those pitches, “when it is on” is mentioned. That is Brice’s biggest crux and the reason why he owns an unimpressive 4.26 ERA over 560 minor league innings. The trend with Brice’s game is that there is no trend at all. From start to start or even inning to inning, he can either be the hero on the goat. When he is off, like many pitchers of his size the problem lies in his ability to repeat his delivery and most importantly maintain his release point, suggesting he is likely destined for a mid-late relief role rather than a rotation job. With two plus pitches already and two more, the aforementioned curve and a mid-80s changeup and still improving, the fact that he is good at subduing power, and held righty hitters to a .171 BA last year, he could make quite the living in that role at the major league level. All of that said, Brice has begun 2016 as consistent as he ever has been, not allowing more than 3 runs in any of his first five starts with half of them being of the quality variety. He also owns a 23/6 K/BB and he is pounding the zone with 246 of his 367 pitches (72%) of his pitches going for strikes. While it may be a last gasp effort (pun intended) for the gargantuan but somewhat unathletic Brice to save his future as a rotation starter, his start is encouraging.

Jake EschJake Esch is the Marlins’ current number nine prospect and an 11th round draft pick from 2011. He stands at an athletic 6’3″, 205 and owns a four pitch arsenal consisting of a 93-96 fastball which he can spot corner to corner. He can also pitch off of the other end of his velo range, a mid 80s slider that has 10-3 movement with late bite. His ability to lead hitters off with both ends of the spectrum allows him to keep hitters off balance despite what they may see from the on-deck circle. He mixes in a still improving mid-80s change which also flashes above average and which plays off his fastball well, especially against opposing righties which he last year with the Suns held to just a .200 BAA. The Esch curveball is the least progressed of his pitches but although the spin needs to be improved, it has good 11-5 shape and can make hitters look silly when he places it correctly. After getting off to a great start in AA last year in which he held down a 3.48 ERA through 85 innings with a 68/33 K/BB, Esch received the call to AAA. However, being just 400 innings into his career as a pitcher (he came up through high school and college primarily as an infielder which allows him to field his position extremely well), he understandably proved he needs more seasoning in AA. While he is a bit old to begin a repeat season at the sub-AAA level, Esch has made great strides in a short amount of time. Should he continue to build upon a second great start that he has gotten off to in Jacksonville this year (2.93 ERA, 21/8 K/BB, 1.05 WHIP through is first 27.2 IP), he should get a better timed call to AAA and, with similar success there, could make an impact with the Marlins as early as next season.

Jarlin Garcia is a bit of an oddity in the way that he owns a 6’3″ 220 pound power pitcher’s frame but will rarely reach the mid-90s. That said, by not overthrowing and relying more on good control over all four of his pitches, Garcia has become the Marlins’ third ranked prospect. His arsenal consists of a fastball that can touch 95 on the rare occasion that he ramps it up that high but usually lives in the 90-91 MPH range. Garcia has great feel for the pitch can paint corners with it, letting it run either in or out and consistently keeping it down in the zone making it a pitch he will throw in any count. He pitches off of the heat with a changeup that he developed better feel for last year and dips down to 82 MPH. Garcia’s bulldog approach gives him the fearlessness needed to come right after hitters with the pitch and, with good late fade, generates plenty of swings and misses. The Garcia slider is of the 78-81 MPH variety and, while it is the least developed of all of his pitches, it flashes plus when Garcia is on, showing 10-4 movement and the ability to saw hitters off by putting it in on their hands due to late sweep. While Garcia can look dominant when he is throwing well, he isn’t without fault. First, mechanics-wise he doesn’t engage his huge lower half, nearly enough but rather relies more on raw arm strength on his way to the plate. The windup starts out slow with Garcia dropping his arm all the way down behind his plant leg before he comes toward the plate with a long stride, his arm trailing behind him. Even though Garcia rarely throws the ball as hard as he can, the delivery is not repeatable whatsoever if he hopes to use it 100 times per game and stay healthy. Furthermore, by releasing the ball from the point he does, Garcia doesn’t advantageously shorten the distance to the plate for a guy his size. Long story short, Garcia not only just doesn’t do nearly enough with his god-given physical characteristics to be considered much more than a 4-5 starter, concerns about him remaining healthy in his current state may regulate him to a bullpen role. Psychologically, Garcia is also a bit green as nearly every big time scout has been critical of his command, citing the fact that he tends to overthrow in high leverage situations which translated to an awful start to his AA career last season. Going in Garcia’s favor here is the fact that he is still just 23 with room to grow and not become so easily rattled. Much more concerning are the aforementioned mechanical problems. If Garcia hopes to have a future as a starter, they need to beging being ironed out now but after doing something the same way for six years, bad habits can be hard to break. Hopefully his stone isn’t already cast. We will follow him carefully this year.

Projected Team Stats

72-68
.264/.332/.360
77 HR/347 XBH
1201 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

2016 Jupiter Hammerheads Season Preview

Jupiter Hammerheads 2016 Season Preview

2015 Team Stats

67-73
.241/.296/.310
41 HR/222 XBH
1228.1 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Projected Lineup

CF Yefri Perez
2B/DH Avery Romero
1B K.J. Woods
C Arturo Rodriguez
3B Brian Anderson
RF Dexter Kjerstad
DH/2B James Roberts
SS Justin Bohn
LF Cameron Flynn

Three varieties of tacos, three varieties of nachos, empanadas, Corona — judging by the fare being offered up at Roger Dean Stadium this spring, the Hammerheads are excitedly awaiting the arrival of Arturo Rodriguez. Either that or its just an amazing coincidence. In any event, the Mexican export will come to Jupiter this summer.

Somewhat suprisingly thanks to the price tags the Mexican League places on their players, Rodriguez came to the American majors after a .313/.366/.493 career south of the border. Even more surprising was the fact that he was signed by the usually thrifty Marlins. He rewarded that surely hefty, although still not (and probably never will be) certain cost by having a fantastic first half of the season with the Grasshoppers. Over his first 63 games and 237 ABs in the US minors, Rodriguez slashed a team leading .300/.350 /.422 with 6 HR, 32 RBI, and a 28/19 K/BB. In the second half, although the power numbers persisted and he hit 13 HR over Greensboro’s last 62 games, the rest of his stats would suggest that the quicker pace of play and level of competition (the Mexican league is officially classified as AAA but is more like single A and strongly favors offense) as well as the amount of technology and information available to American teams hurt A-Rod a bit as, after the break, his BA fell 50 points to .250 and his K/BB% went from 1.47 to 2.64. Rodriguez by trade is a dead pull hitter, something opposing pitchers started taking advantage of in the second half with catchers most often setting up on the outer half inducing plenty of swings and misses from Rodriguez who doesn’t advantageously step into contact on balls away resulting in either whiffs or weak contact, making him an easy matchup for righties who get ahead early in the count. It is a primary reason he only slashed .246/.304/.375 last year. This area of Rodriguez’s game will be in even more prominent need of improvement as he makes the jump to not only a higher level of opposing talent but also a gargantuan pitcher friendly ballpark this year. If Hammerheads hitting coach Frank Moore can work successfully with A-Rod on slightly tweaking his approach as well as recognizing pitches on the outer half and getting ahead in the count, something he only did at almost exactly a 50% rate last year, Rodriguez at 24, has the rest of the tools necessary to fly through the American minors and still make an impact as a starter at the major league level.

On defense, Rodriguez used a canon-like arm to throw out 40% of his runners in 2014. That figure took a wicked dive upon his transition to the majors. However, the fact that Rodriguez only committed three errors in 385 innings as the Hoppers backstop suggests the lower CS% shouldn’t be a discredit to him but more of a credit to opposing runners getting good jumps on Hoppers’ pitching. Furthermore, it should be noted that, save Tyler Kolek, the 2015 Greensboro rotation was made up Michael Mader, Jorgan Cavanerio, and Ben Holmes all of whom are to contact pitchers who rarely top 90 on the radar gun. That being said, as Rodriguez climbs the minor league ladder, his CS% should normalize. After all, at 6’0″, 235, he has the perfect athletic catchers’ build which he used to hold his passed ball total to a minuscule two last year and, in nearly 100 less innings than he played behind the plate in 2014, contributed three more assists. With good reflexes, a quick pop time and quick hands, Rodriguez, although he has also enjoyed some success at first (just three errors, a 9.27 range factor and 39 assists last year), he projects best as a catcher.

K.J. Woods Speaking of first base, the Hammerheads will also welcome a huge power threat at that position who also played for last year’s Hoppers. 20-year-old KJ Woods is a 6’3″ 230 pound corner man who is currently on the fast track to the majors, having made a jump in level in each of his first three minor league seasons. In his first full professional season last year, Woods dazzled by way of a .277/.364/.496 slash line. His OBP ranked 15th in the Sally League and his SLG and OPS (.861) were second only to Shane Hoelscher, four years his senior. Not only does Woods’ build personify first baseman, his prodigal power which he is still just beginning to live up to and which Baseball America scouts once ranked at a 70, does as well. Even more advantageous for Woods is the fact that he is a lefty. Standing tall in the box with only a slight bend in the knees, Woods pivots beautifully into a prototypical uppercut power swing. His lower half mechanics are a thing of beauty, even at such a young age of development. He uses a slight front foot trigger and an even more pronounced front foot pivot which he uses to point towards the ball which he picks up very quickly out of the pitcher’s hand before using active hips and a back foot finish, giving his mechanics near-perfect balance. As you may have guessed, Woods heavily favors pull hitting and fouls tons of pitches off trying to inside-out them in ABs often ending in strikeouts which heavily lent themselves to his 30.3 K% last season. That said, looking at his hit charts, he has also flashed a premature ability to step into pitches go opposite field. If that ability can be further nurtured, Woods, who is still very young, has the potential to become a complete power hitter. Even if he doesn’t fully learn the art of oppo, the average cycle of maturation suggests a hitter like Woods will develop a better ability to not attempt to do too much and instead wait out opposing pitchers or induce a mistake. Having already great mechanics and being a great raw athlete, Woods is a lefty power hitter worth getting excited about as he fills out.

Yefri PerezIn 2016, the Hammerheads will likely welcome back the fastest man the Marlins’ organization has ever seen: Yefri Perez. The Dominican export is set to begin his second full season with the Hammerheads. Last season, he set a Hammerheads’ franchise record by swiping 71 bases. It was the highest total the FSL has seen since 2007. Delving a bit further into his stats, Perez stole a base 45% of the time he reached base. While that fact looks pleasantly impressive on the surface and remains so even as you look at the rest of his season, the smile drifts away from your face when you look at his slash line and realize he was only on base 169 times in 563 PAs (.286 OBP). However, when you think of what Perez could potentially accomplish if his ability to reach base should improve, overwhelming pleasant and frightening thoughts prevail, you beam a Mr. Burns-esque grin and rub your palms together in the same devilish manner. In simpler terms, if Perez was the base thief he was in 2015 with such a minimal slash line, it is insanely congenial to think about the prospect of what he could do should he make improvements to his offensive game at the plate. Perez has never been and never will be a power threat or even much of an off the bat XBH threat but thanks to his jets, he doesn’t have to be. What he does have to do is reduce his strikeout total from last year (95) which ranked as 18th most in the FSL. This can be done by way of both shortening his swing and not committing to pull the trigger on it nearly as often as he did last season. At 5’11”, pitchers who got ahead early and changed Perez’s eye level by climbing the ladder on him and who took the bunt out of order which is where Yefri found over half of his success when it came to hits, found him to be easy pickings by way of getting him to fish for pitches out of the zone. So many Ks was a bit of a new experience for Yefri who has always been a bit of a free swinger but never to this extent. Hopefully it is just a bump in the road for him but at 25 and still just at single A advanced, he can’t have too many more of these if he hopes to make an impact at the major league level. Perez seems to be aware of this fact as he spent his entire offseason playing in full speed games. He played in the Dominican Winter League before spending most of spring camp with the Marlins, getting in some valuable elbow rubs and tutelage from the likes of Barry Bonds, Don Mattingly and the big league roster. Hope is that Perez can put those experiences to good use and further his game. His prowess for speed aside, Perez is likely never going to be major league starting material at any position (he can play virtually anywhere) but if he hasn’t peaked as a sub-AA player, can make some improvements to his offensive game, cut down on strikeouts, and get his OBP back around average parameters, he can still make an impact as a late inning replacement. Watch Perez closely this season as, at his age, his future may very well depend on it.

As for the DH spot, I pencil in James Roberts, playing in his first full season in the Marlins’ organization and who’s recent past is a bit of an anomaly. Roberts is a 24-year-old 2013 Indians draftee out of USC where he had a .295/.373/.364 career which included a .320/.379/.429 junior year and earned him the right to skip straight to A+. In his first full professional season in Carolina, Roberts played in a team high 117 games and recorded a team high 407 ABs, holding down a respectable .268 BA and .339 OBP with a 75/34 K/BB. Upon the 2014 Mudcats’ move to Lynchburg, Roberts’ 2015 got off to a pretty rocky start. In his first 43 games, he hit just .228/.259/.302 spurring his release from the Indians’ organization. The Marlins signed Roberts on July 10th just after the All-Star break and after 2 games in the Gulf Coast League, sent him to Jupiter. In almost as many games as he played for the Hillcats and the Indians, Roberts was one of the Marlins’ and Hammerheads’ best second half minor league players at the plate, all while hitting in an extreme pitchers park as opposed to a much more neutral environment in which he struggled with Lynchburg. In his 35 games and 108 ABs with the Hammerheads, Roberts slashed .324/.368/.435. Looking at the rest of his pro career thus far, Roberts has been the same extreme on-again-off-again type offensive player and, at 24, the Indians evidently weren’t willing to wait for consistency. While it remains to be seen whether Roberts can be more than just a slighty-over-mendoza-line type weapon over the course of a full season, he earns top marks on the 40-80 scale when it comes to making contact thanks to a very mechanically sound short swing based off a great approach. Initially standing from a split stance in the box, Roberts transitions to a straight stance as he watches the pitcher’s motion and he adjusts to location well. Although he favors the pull variety of hitting and has a tendency to try to inside-out pitches, he has shown the ability to go with pitches and appears to have a great working knowledge of situationalism. Though he is a bit old to begin a second season at this level, it cannot be ignored that he barely spent any time at all at any other professional level after coming out of college and that, once reports got out on him in Carolina and followed him to Lynchburg (.283/.372/.319 in the first half of 2014 compared to .255/.308/.319 in the second half) are a very probable explanation for his struggles. Roberts is a smart hitter with a knack to find gaps and, if his start with the Hammerheads is any indication, is out to prove something after his release from the Indians organization. Roberts’ focus this year should be on better plate vision and less pressing when behind in the count, a better approach versus lefties whom he historically tries to do too much against, and keeping the fine pace he historically starts out with over the course of a full season. If he plans to make any impact at all in the National League, Roberts needs to make vast improvements to his defensive game. He has played most of his games at 3B but with 21 errors there over the course of 77 games thanks to an inaccurate throwing arm, his future is probably at 2B. He will likely get starts there versus righties this year, with Avery Romero starting in the field against lefties.

As for Romero himself, he also begins a second season with Jupiter. He joins Perez as the second of seven Hammerheads All-Stars from last season to at least begin a second season with the team. Romero is a third round draft pick from 2012 who, thanks to years of .276/.341/.391 in 2013 and .320/.367/.423 each of which has been rewarded with a jump in minor league level. In ’13, Romero ended the year in Greensboro after beginning it in Batavia and in 2014, he ended the season in Jupiter after becoming one of the Grasshoppers’ best hitters. That didn’t happen for Romero this year. The reason? A .259/.315/.314 slash line, his worst yet as a pro. After hitting a combined 295/358/400 to begin his career and jump at least one level with each passing season, the horseshoe was thrown in Romero’s wheels this season. While some of the reason for the decline can be blamed on the huge dimensions of Roger Dean Stadium, Romero also struck out a career high 71 times, part of a 1.87 K/BB% year. Romero’s crux seems to be in his timing. Last year, he was often out in front of the first half and behind the second half of the fastball/changeup combo and found himself behind in the count early in his ABs and often allowing pitchers to have a much easier time with him. The battler he is, Romero was still able to tough out 38 walks to keep his K/BB% under 2 but if he is going to succeed as the type of bat that he is, decent power but not enough to rely on it solely as a pure XBH threat, Romero needs to improve his plate vision. This is further proven by the fact that for his career, he owns just a .257 BA and a 13.7 K% against top 20 prospects. When Romero’s swing is on time, it’s a thing of beauty. He maintains softness in his hands well and strides through the plate with a solidly-built active lower half and a quick short stroke. If his aggressiveness can be turned down a notch (but not too much), Romero will be a bat worthy of top-100 prospect recognition in the coming years. Defensively, Romero came up as a middle infielder. However, in high school, he his best position was behind the plate, as proven by the sub-2 second pop and strong accurate on line arm he showed during multiple showcases. At 5’11”, 200 pounds with the aforementioned thick lower half, Romero has the perfect build for a modern era catcher and most scouts had him lined up to be transitioned to that spot as most recently as last year. But the Marlins don’t appear to be going that route with Romero. Since beginning his minor league career, he has played 279 games at 2B, 26 at third and zero at catcher. While some may consider that to be a waste of some great raw tools, Romero still plays a solid infield. At second, he goes gap to gap very well and reads balls off the bat like a pro. Like his antics at the plate, he could use to be a little bit less anxious when transferring from glove to hand but that should come with age and good coaching. Romero’s strong lower half allows him to maintain his stance well and stand up to some pretty tough slides on double play turns as we saw him turn some doozies last year. Long story short on this 22-year-old, is, while he is going to begin a repeat season at any level for the first time in his pro career and while he does require some tempering when it comes to his competitive attitude and make-up which often tempts him in to making bad decisions, he has arguably the most all-around skill of anyone in the system and still has a very good chance of making an impact with the Marlins by 2020, if not earlier. With a good start at Jupiter this year, Romero could and should find himself in a Suns uniform by the time the year is through.

The number nine spot on the field will belong to one of the funnest names to say that the Marlins have ever possessed: Dexter X Kjerstad. Kjerstad is a 6’1″ 210 2010 draftee out of high school who instead elected to attend college. Kjerstad was a spectacular NCAA power bat, boasting a .374/.426/.621 slash line. He hit a homer once every twenty ABs while also managing to rarely ever strike out. 1.07 K/BB. Kjerstad also flashed plus speed in his undergraduate days, going 20/27 in stolen base attempts and scoring 90 runs. His .388/.431/.608 season in 2013 made him the Rajin Cajuns’ best hitter and lead them to a Super Regionals berth. Following that season, Kjerstad was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Royals. As a 22-year-old in single A in his first year in pro ball, Kjerstad had quite the respectable season slashing .275/.336/.428 with 25 XBH including 6 HR and 33 RBI. Like any pure power threat, Kjerstad also K’d 59 times to just 18 walks but the good far outweighed the bad. By season’s end it would seem that he had placed himself on the fast track to the majors. That was backed up by the fact that during the offseason, he was promoted to A+. However, in Wilmington in 2015, Kjerstad was clearly overmatched. In 51 games and 158 ABs, he slashed just .247/.288/.316 with 6 XBH. While he struck out at a rate of 30%, he walked just seven times. Though his season wasn’t going great or even good, the Royals made quite the knee-jerk decision after Kjerstad got just 158 ABs above the single A level: rather than sending him back down, they released the 23-year-old. But Kjerstad wasn’t going to let the dream die there. He returned home to Texas and went back to the drawing board, working on perfecting his craft in a semi-pro league in his hometown of Amarillo. In 45 games with the American Association’s Amarillo Thunderbolts, Kjerstad was a man possessed. He slashed a ridiculous .300/.338/.584 with 11 HR (one in every 17 ABs), 26 XBH and 31 RBI in just 190 ABs. Again, the K/BB% was gargantuan but very easy to look past. Kjerstad was probably surprised when his phone rang at the end of that season and a major league club was on the other end but he shouldn’t have been surprised at which club it was — the Marlins — who have historically dug up some diamonds in the rough in similar situations as he found himself in. With the Hammerheads, Kjerstad will get a chance to start back over from where he left off after his solid 2014 season and make his tough 2015 seem like a bad dream. It will be an uphill battle for Kjerstad who goes from an independent league to playing in one of the most pitcher friendly associated leagues in the minors but it would seem as though he has got a lot to prove. As described, he is a pure power threat who favors pull but has the ability to go to all fields. After breaking into the pros, scouts rated Kjerstad’s speed, power, XBH-ability and durability all at or around 70 on the 30-80 scale. However, they also ranked his contact at a minuscule 38. And they were exactly right. Even though his accomplishments in 2014 shouldn’t be discounted, it cannot be ignored that his best and only good season as a pro came at the expense of a .332 BABIP. In fact, each season he has played whether it be collegiate or pro, save one, that metric has not been anywhere close to neutral, not even during his sub-mendoza line 2015 half season at this same level. It isn’t in doubt that there is plenty of strength, athleticism and talent packed in to Kjerstad’s 6’1″ 210 pound frame but if he is to fully realize it, he will need to time his swings a lot better. He tries to swing for the fences entirely too often and though he can spray it to all fields, he is an extreme straight line hitter who has trouble finding the gaps. Though he possesses good lower half mechanics, he tends to fly open on his swings causing it to get a bit long. All of those factors will need to be addressed. It will undoubtedly be a challenge for Kjerstad to re-tool himself as much as he needs to but he is without question thankful for the chance to play at this level again. Should he be willing to learn and perfect his craft, he has the ability to become quite the dangerous bat off the bench. A very low risk, high reward find by the Marlins, these are the kind of signings that can potentially make scout’s careers.

Projected Rotation

1. Jorgan Cavanerio
2. Jeff Brigham
3. Chris Sadberry
4. Jose Adames
5. Sean Townsley

My projected ace for the Hammerheads this year is sixth year pro, Jorgan Cavanerio. Since beginning his career at 16 years old and spending a few seasons in the Dominican and Gulf Coast Leagues, Jorgan has grown into an under-the-radar prospect who translates well as a 3-5 big league starter. At 6’1″, 155, he isn’t much of a physical specimen. As for his mechanics, again, they don’t appear to be anything to write home about. He throws straight ahead, not downhill and from a common 3/4 arm slot and doesn’t have a ton of power behind any of his offerings, topping out at right around 90 MPH. However, when Cavanerio releases the ball, you understand why he is an up and coming product worthy of top 20 organizational recognition. Cavanerio possesses four pitches all of which move and all of which he has either great or good and developing control over, allowing him to keep them low in the zone, making him a viable candidate to grow into a soft tossing finesse ground ball pitcher. His four seamer tops out at 92 but usually sits in the 90 MPH range. He has a good handle on it and rarely puts it out over the heart of the plate. He uses it to set up his best pitch, an 84 mile an hour changeup that has made leaps and bounds over the course of the last two seasons. Once a less-than-average pitch, it is now a pitch he can throw in any count with consistent control. When he spots it on the outside black after it starts out well out of the zone and stays there until the hitter starts to look it into the catcher’s glove, the pitch is nearly untouchable. The rest of Cavanerio’s arsenal consists of a sinking two-seamer and a slow arcing curve with rainbow-like 12-6 action. Both pitches are still works in progress but both have flashed plus movement. The curve bottoms out at 74, giving him a mix of speeds interval of 18 MPH. On the downside, Cavanerio does have a tendency to lose consistency on his release point from inning to inning which has led him to some pretty ugly lines but that is nothing that cannot be worked out with more innings and higher level coaching. Right now, Cavanerio reminds me a lot of a younger underdeveloped version of Adam Conley who just won the fifth starter spot on this year’s MLB team. Still just 20, Cavanerio still undoubtedly has the ability to bulk up and gain a few more miles per hour worth of velo. If he does that and his release becomes more constant and if he can learn to toss from more of a downward plane, there’s nothing against Cavanerio one day becoming a big league rotation fixture. He will be worth keeping an eye on as he progresses through the minors.

Jeff BrighamJeff Brigham is a fourth round 2014 Dodgers draftee who came over to the Marlins in the Mat Latos/Michael Morse trade last season. Ranked the Dodgers 17th best organizational prospect headed into last year, Brigham skipped low A, going straight from rookie ball to single A advanced. Hope was that at 23, Brigham could prove he could handle a starter’s load of innings in high A quickly, placing him on track to perhaps break the big league club by 2017. A wrench was thrown in that plan however, as Brigham struggled mightily in 2015, compiling a 1.68 WHIP and a 5.96 ERA over 14 starts and 68 IP. Then in late July, Brigham’s change of scenery came when he swapped coasts going from Rancho Cucamonga to Jupiter. Brigham fared much better in the friendlier Florida State League and, although he gave up hits at a similar .276 clip over his last six games of the season (that figure was .286 out west), his walk rate fell considerably and he limited damage much more consistently, stranding an 77% of his runners as opposed to 63% earlier in the year. Throwing from a low 3/4 arm slot, Brigham works quickly and has an easy fluid repeatable delivery. Stuff wise, he is a three pitch pitcher but everything else he throws revolves around his fastball, the pitch that makes Brigham the prospect he is and his meal ticket to the majors. The Brigham heater is a two-headed monster in the way that he has the ability to make it explode out of his hand with 97 MPH velo and blow it by hitters or he can take something off of it and let the pitches’ fabulous running movement be the catalyst. Though he can throw the pitch virtually anywhere and generate swings and misses, he favors jamming hitters in on the hands and getting them to saw the pitch off. Brigham’s favorited placement on his slider balances the heater out nicely. Sitting at a slurvy 75 with late 11-5 break, it’s a pitch he can either throw to set up the fastball or toss at the end of an AB to get a hitter out in front. On common occasion when the pitch has been under his control, he has made many a righty hitter look silly going fishing out of the zone. When it comes to areas of improvement, because of the amount of movement each of his pitches owns, Brigham needs to get a more consistent handle on his tipping points and placing pitches more consistently at their targets. Should that happen, Brigham, with a nearly fully developed arsenal of pitches that all flash plus, should have no problem continuing on the fast track by making it to AA by the middle of the year.

Projected 2016 Team Stats

64-76
.258/.322/.356
60 HR/325 XBH
1160 IP, 4.51 ERA, 1.42 WHIP

Greensboro Grasshoppers 2016 Season Preview

Greensboro Grasshoppers Season Preview

2015 Team Stats

51-88
.238/.299/.354
100 HR/318 XBH
1212 IP, 4.49 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Projected Lineup

CF John Norwood
2B Alex Fernandez Jr.
RF Stone Garrett
1B Austen Smith
DH Korey Dunbar
C Brad Haynal
SS Justin Twine
3B Brian Schales
LF Travis Brewster

It will undoubtedly be an exciting season in Greensboro this year where, along with new manager Kevin Randel, the newest cast of young stud prospects will join a plethora of improving talent for what is sure to be a Grasshoppers team worth following. Names such as Garrett, Fernandez, Dunbar and Hillyer will meet up with those such as Smith, Twine, Norwood and Kolek, fusing the 2016 Hoppers into a squad worthy of Sally League title contention.

When Stone Garrett fell to the Marlins in round eight of last year’s draft, some scouts were surprised he fell that far. In his first professional season in Batavia last year, Garrett justified that astonishment by setting the New York Penn League on fire. By way of a .297/.352/.581 slash line, the 19-year-old became the it’s best hitter. He had hits in 39 of his 58 appearances and at one point, had a hit in twelve straight games. The 6’2″, 195 pounder paced the NYPL in nearly every major power hitting category, including SLG (.581), HRs (11), XBHs (35), total bases (129), and RBIs (46).

Looking at those numbers in contrast to Garrett’s final high school season before the draft, while the potential was known to be there, it’s almost hard to believe the improvement Stone has made in just one short season. In under a year’s time and in 74 more ABs, Garrett’s BA rose 61 points, his OBP 83, points and his 311 points. In 2014 in the Gulf Coast League, he did not hit a single home run. With the single A Muckdogs, he hit 11 and his RBI total more than doubled from 11 to 29. Both scouts and Garrett himself attribute this to the fact that he learned how to utilize the lower half of his 6’2″, 195 pound frame much more efficiently.


Garrett’s huge power swing is no longer all arms. He is getting his hips and legs involved in his approach while still managing to stay behind the ball very well. He transfers his weight from his back foot to the ball like he’s been doing it for years. This has resulted in Garrett becoming a much more dangerous man at the plate. He is no longer reaching for pitches away but rather stepping into the ball and making good contact on pitches on the outer half. His quick hands are also allowing him to find the barrel on pitches inside. Ultimately, nearly everything Garrett touches is hit well and hard and the ball jumps off his bat. Though the power is there for him to reach the fences every time, Garrett maintains his discipline. He doesn’t try to do too much with pitches. Instead, he relies more on a short straight-through quick stroke and plus speed to turn hard line drives into XBHs. He has a good first step out of the box and flies down the line with sub-7 second ease. On the odd chance that he only collects a single (53% of his hits last year went for at least a double), he utilizes those jets to get in to scoring position. He swiped eight bags last season in 13 attempts. While this area of his game could use a little polishing when it comes to reading opposing pitchers, the raw talent is there for him to become a 30-30 guy. If there is one knock on Garrett’s approach, it’s that he is susceptible to breaking balls in the dirt. However, from the beginning of last season, he seems to have tempered that. After K’ing 27 times in his first 18 games, he K’d just 28 times in his final 40 games. Rounding out his game, Garrett has a strong arm on defense, worthy of manning any of the three outfield spots. His throws do tend to carry a bit but that is nothing that can’t be fixed with some TLC, maturation and consistency at one position on the way up. Stone’s speed best suits him for center field, making him quite the rare commodity: a right-handed power first oufielder with plus jets. Should the progression he showed last year continue through his first full professional season this year, this is a guy I will be very high on headed in to 2017.

Speaking on his new teammate whom he spent a few games with at the end of last season, Austen Smith echoed our excitement about this giant talent.

“I’m excited to have the chance to play with Stone again,” Smith said. “He’s such a physical specimen. He’s going to be a fun player to watch develop.”

As for Smith himself, the ever-so-modest power hitting first baseman is no light load, either nor is he without a wide variety of skills. The gargantuan 6’4″, 235 pounder will begin a second season in Greensboro but if his offseason work pays off, he will not be there long. Last year, after jumping straight from the Gulf Coast League in to his first full season, the 24-year-old’s stamina and athleticism served him well as he played in 113 of Greensboro’s 139 games, a team high. Going from 153 ABs in 2014 to 390, he was their third best hitter with a .241/.349/.431 line. He also placed second on the team in homers with 17. Smith made great strides last year when it came to maintaining his looseness, serving his pure power stroke very well. Swinging from a straight stance, the ball flies off his barrel when he makes contact with his uppercut hacks. He mashes straight stuff with ease and his best power is to dead center but as he proved last year, he can spray it to all fields. Like any pure power hitter, Smith is susceptible to the strikeout but he walks enough to offset them and still posts solid OBP totes. However, it would be nice to see Smith read breaking stuff a bit better and put some more meat on his BA. If his offseason work pays off this year, it undoubtedly will.

“I’ve worked on shortening my swing a bit,” Smith said. “Hopefully that will allow me more time to recognize pitches.”

Joining 2014 draftees Garrett and Smith will be a name that will take long-time Marlins fans on a nostalgia trip back to the mid-90s (or just make them feel old) as Alex Fernandez Jr, son of former Miami pitcher Alex Fernandez comes to Greensboro for his first taste of full-season ball. Fernandez Jr. will also man a spot on the infield; it will just be from a few feet back from where his dad did his work on the mound. Fernandez is, as you may have guessed, a South Florida resident who graduated from Archbishop McCarthy High School before graduating from Nova Southeastern University. In his undergrad days, he once hit a homer off of now Astros ace Lance McCullers. As he proved last year, it was no fluke. But first, for the defense. Arm wise, the apple didn’t fall too far from the tree as Fernandez possesses a strong enough one to play virtually anywhere in the field. His ability to get in a low stance from his 5’10” build, good reads off the bat, good footwork, and soft hands make him most advantageous play at second base. In 150 innings there with the Muckdogs and GCL Marlins in 2015, he piled up a combined range factor right around 5.0, contributed to nine double plays and only committed six errors. At the plate, Fernandez’s stout build allows him to stand straight up and swing from a balanced stance. He swings with a straight through line drive stroke that surprisingly packs a bit of power behind it, especially for a guy his size, allotting the way for a SLG right at .400 last year. That said, his swing does have the tendency to get a bit long which is what contributed to a 2.8 K/BB last season with the Muckdogs. As a bottom half of the order bat with surprising power for his build and solid defense, this current version of Fernandez reminds me a lot of a young Jose Fernandez with a lot of room to improve before cracking the majors in what I predict to be 2019.

Brad HaynalThe Marlins addressed the thinnest position in the organization in last year’s draft by selecting upwards of seven backstops. One of those selections began producing immediately as a Muckdog. With the 596th overall pick, the Marlins drafted Korey Dunbar deep in the draft in round 20, his second time being selected. He was picked by the Dodgers in 2012 but elected to attend college at the University of North Carolina. After honing his craft there and improving with each passing season three times Dunbar forwent his senior year of college and joined the Muckdogs in Batavia on June 21st. In 17 games in upstate New York, Dunbar slashed .317/.406/.400 with 5 XBH and 5 RBIs, proving not only that he has the ability to improve as he matures with age but also that he has the ability to adjust to different levels of competition. Dunbar’s season in Batavia impressed the Marlins’ brass so much they gave him a jump-start on this season by promoting him to Greensboro for the end of the Hoppers’ season. He hit .238/.333/.286 with a double and 3 RBIs in 21 ABs. As a hitter, Dunbar has awesome raw power stemming from a huge uppercut swing. When he makes contact, he has good gap-to-gap strength and a knack for getting the ball at least to the wall. But there are some flaws in Dunbar’s approach that need to be rectified. Preswing, Dunbar relies far too much on his arms and not nearly enough on his legs. Looking at his swing, even on homers, he doesn’t get nearly enough of his lower half behind his stroke. Furthermore, Dunbar’s ABs rely almost exclusively on what happens on the first pitch. If he falls behind even 0-1, his ABs usually result in a strikeout which is what has led to 30/11 K/BB so far in his pro career and 2.13 K/BB in his college career. However, if Dunbar can make a few breakthrough changes in his approach and learn to be a bit more patient and not press especially on pitches away, he can turn in to a very dangerous hitter and being a power-first backstop, a very sought after commodity. The arm strength Korey uses at the plate further serves him on defense where he possesses a cannon throw. For a guy his size, he wears the gear very well and has the ability to block any pitch in the dirt. Like his offense though, his defense needs a bit of nurturing in the way that his throws tend to get a bit too much arm behind them and carry. If the trend Korey has shown so far in his career that he makes great strides on both sides of the ball every year continues, he will be a fun product to watch on the way up. I pencil him in as the DH and backup catcher to start the year in 2016.

Accordingly, I have the starting catching job falling to Brad Haynal. A third year catcher out of San Diego State where he hit .274/.341/.461 with 62 XBH and 98 RBI despite missing an entire season in 2012 due to a broken leg, forwent a red shirt college season to join the Marlins in 2014. Haynal spent most of his time in Batavia that season where he hit .271/.318/.373 with 8 XBH and 21 RBI. Last season, Haynal made strides in the area of plate presence that are nothing short of gargantuan. After piling up a dismal 51/10 K/BB in 43 games and 171 ABs in 2014, Haynal managed a 51/30 in 68 games and 248 ABs last year, paving the way for him to hit .274/.362/.407 with 21 doubles, 4 homers and 34 RBI. After placing near the bottom of the NYPL in OBP a season prior, he was the league’s 17th best in that category. With 25 of his 68 hits going for extra bases, Haynal was also the NYPL’s 17th best slugger. By trade, Haynal is a pure pull hitter, which pitchers exploited by shying far away from the inside half and pitching him as far away as possible when ahead in the count. That was until he fell under the tutelege of Rigoberto Silverio last season. Comparing hit charts and approaches, Silviero worked wonders with Haynal.

Brad Haynal (1) Brad Haynal

Instead of trying to turn pitches inside-out, Haynal began using his front foot trigger to point towards the ball and kept his head down much more efficiently, watching pitches all the way through. The results are evident. Where only something in the neighborhood of 17 of his ABs resulted in a ball just managing to reach the right field grass in 2014, Haynal had exactly the same amount of balls drop for contact in that vicinity, including three doubles and a homer. These improvements have made Haynal’s mechanics beautiful. As mentioned, he times pitches with an early front-foot trigger which he raises as soon as he sees the ball come out of the pitcher’s hand. He gets his lower half engaged well and snaps his hips through his swing. Perhaps his best asset though is his ability to maintain loose hands until he commits to contact. It gives his approach a great sense of fluidity and makes his slight uppercut swing look like it’s being executed with ease. He maintains a two hand grip on the bat all the way through his stroke and only raises his head after he makes contact. As a result of the work he put in with Silverio, Haynal has become a mechanically and athletically sound power hitting catcher with the ability to touch all fields. Considering his OBP and SLG both rose nearly 100 points and his BB/K more than doubled (2.5 to 5.8), it is safe to say Haynal has definitely been born again as a hitter. If Haynal can make similar progress on the defensive side of the ball where he has good raw tools that need to be harnessed, he will become quite the all-around backstop.

Along some of the rest of the infield, the Hoppers will likely welcome back shortstop Justin Twine and third baseman Brian Schales, both of whom were counted along the Marlins’ top organizational prospects last year. Unfortunately for some minor leaguers, even those who receive a lot of preseason hype, the baseball world isn’t all rainbows and butterflies. Both Twine and Schales learned that last year as both of them struggled to tread water above the mendoza line and committed a combined 55 errors, causing them to drop off the top prospect radar this season in almost all circles. However, there is still plenty of talent in these two young players.

Justin TwineFirstly, we look at Twine. As a two sport athlete out of TCU in 2014, scouts raved about certain aspects of Twine’s game including his bat speed and athleticism neither of which were a problem last year. However, they also commented on his swing being entirely too long. That is something we saw plenty of in 2015. In addition to a weak followthrough, Twine’s footwork is way off-kilter. He uses a front foot trigger to time pitches and gets it down as the pitch arrives which is fine but as he follows through, his plant leg comes off the ground as well. This results in Twine essentially hopping in to his swings and throws everything else completely off. The product of this is an off-balance long swing, a ton of strikeouts (108 last year) and weak contact. While the raw tools and athleticism are not in question, this needs to be addressed by Silviero and the rest of the Hoppers’ staff if Twine is going to live up to his potential at the plate. Regarding Twine’s defensive game, it’s a very similar story. While he has great speed and the ability to close on anything hit in his vicinity, proven by his 4.03 range factor last year, he doesn’t always take the best routes to balls which results in hurried and off-balance throws. It was hoped that with more innings, this was something Twine would be able to correct, but after his first 1300+ pro innings it still hasn’t. For this reason and with improving his offense undoubtedly being his primary focal point, Twine may be better suited for either second base or an outfield position.

Then there is Brian Schales. After entering 2015 as the Marlins’ #16 prospect, the fourth round pick from 2014 didn’t have a terrible campaign, slashing .260/.330/.348, but hardly one becoming of that placement within the organization. While some of the reason for this can be attributed to 2015 being his first pro season, Schales’ game is definitely in need of some grooming. Schales stands in a similar stance as that of Twine, nearly straight up with a slight bend in the knees. Other than that though, Schales has far better mechanics than his fellow infielder. He engages his lower half well and has a much shorter swing, which compliments his style of slap singles hitting well. Vision wise, Schales is quite decent but he could use to get a bit better when it comes to following the ball out of the pitcher’s hand. He is late to pick up the break on pitches and while he doesn’t strike out much, he very rarely finds the barrell. If the 20-year-old can improve in that aspect, it will work wonders for the kind of hit-for-average type guy he hopes and needs to become to be a success professionally. On defense, Schales is the kind of guy that has the ability to make a fantastic play on any ball hit near him but his arm is still very immature. He tends to get on top of his throws very often, resulting in either hard-to-handle or throws far off the mark. Overall, though, there’s still plenty of talent in this young infielder and he isn’t many breakthroughs away from placing himself back near the top of the Marlins’ prospect list. With good coaching and some effort, he can place himself back on the fast track to the majors this season. Watch him closely.

Projected Rotation

1. Tyler Kolek
2. Michael Mader
3. Jordan Holloway
4. Brett Lilek

Young fireballer Tyler Kolek who topped triple digits as early as his days in high school had high hopes surrounding him as he entered 2015 as the Marlins’ top ranked prospect. Over the course of his 108.2 innings as a full-season professional, the 20-year-old had that same incredible velocity — and that’s about it. As he labored through the season and after the campaign wound up, his struggles were well documented. Here are my takeaways. In very simple terms, Kolek, right now, is a one-pitch pitcher. That one pitch is his fastball. In high school, Kolek could get by with this, putting all of his arm behind the pitch and just purely blowing it by hitters. However, as Kolek has learned, that won’t cut it in the majors. Tinkering with his delivery has cost him some MPH off his fastball and caused it to settle in to the mid-90s, usually sitting at around 93-95. The pitch has good downward movement as it is thrown from almost a completely over the top delivery and has some slight sinking action. It is the first pitch he throws in nearly every AB, as it should be. His command of the pitch is iffy but it is good enought at the moment to allow him to place it where he wants more often than not. Other than that, the rest of Kolek’s stuff is literally all over the place. He is not confident in any of the rest of his offerings, leading to a long arm action and a delivery stride in his legs that often finds him throwing from well behind the stride in his plant leg. This leads to a pitch that is nearly impossible to control and depending on where it winds up, either a very hittable pitch or a very obvious ball. Either way, his offspeed stuff is very easy on hitters’ eyes. While these are issues that can be worked out with good coaching, they are issues that deter him from the fast track making him less of an A type prospect and more like a B-C type. 2016 isn’t a make-or-break season for Kolek as he is still very young but it is a year in which we will further be able to establish his status as a prospect and where he may spot in future Marlins’ plans.

Michael MaderRe-joining Kolek will be his teammate from last year, Michael Mader. Mader is a 22-year-old Floridian lefty drafted with a supplemental pick in 2014. He owns a mid-90s fastball usually sitting around 93 MPH, a good biting out pitch curveball in the 80-MPH range and a solid mix-in changeup. When on, Mader was brilliant in 2015, six times topping 6 innings with one run or less. But when he was off, he was really off, six times failing to go more than 4 innings and givin up more than four runs. Mechanically, Mader is a very sound pitcher, throwing from a 3/4 delivery with a downhill stride. His fastball has been clocked as high as 95 but usually sits in the 90-92 MPH range. His best offering is undoubtedly his slurvy curve out pitch which possesses excellent late movement. The one hitch keeping the athletically build 6’0″ 200 punder away from a future rotation spot at the moment is his inconsistent command. As good as his slider can be when on, it can be equally as hittable when he isn’t. This is the biggest issue facing Mader if he hopes to make it as a starter. He could also use to further develop his third pitch changeup.

As for the third and fourth roty spots, I have both them going to newcomers from Batavia. Firstly, Jordan Holloway is a pick the Marlins took a big chance on in round 20 of the draft. By the looks of him so far, the gargantually tall 6’4″ righty has paid off. With his fastball topping out in the 93 MPH range which he has very good command over, Holloway mixes in a variety of breaking stuff, the best of which being a curve whcih spins tightly into the zone, that is provided he doesn’t get on top of it too much which should work itself out as he matures. His work-in-progress pitch is a changeup which he tosses in the mid-80s. Should that offering come to fruition as well as his hook further improving, the huge downhill thrower who makes the most of his large build is a projectable 3-5 starter with plenty of upside.

Finally, there comes lefty Brett Lilek whom the Marlins drafted in the second round last season. The now 22-year-old produced impressive results in his college career with the Arizona Sun Devils, going 10-8 with a 3.05 ERA and a 7.97 K/9 over his three seasons. Last season in Batavia, Lilek was one of the Muckdogs’ most effective hurlers, with the worst luck ever, going just 1-2 in 11 starts despite compiling a 3.34 ERA by way of a 6.14 K/BB. Lilek owns a vast variety of weapons including a 93-95 MPH heater with good downward movement and three breaking pitches including a great late-break slider, an improving curve, and a mix-in project changeup. With a 95-82 mix in velocities and the potential to become a four pitch pitcher who is athletic as they come, Lilek should be a fun peice to watch.

Projected 2016 Team Stats

61-79
.246/.315/.370
82 HR/303 XBH
1185 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.37 WHIP