Tagged: Dan Straily

2017 Spring Training Power Rankings

We are eight games in to the 27 game spring training ledger and Opening Day roster battles are in full swing. Here is a look at who’s hot and who’s not in Marlins camp among those vying to have their name announced and line up along Marlins’ Park’s baselines on April 11.

Fourth Bench Spot

Miguel Rojas Hitting .375/.353/.813 in first eight games, 16 AB and has most recent MLB experience. Also has the most positional flexibility with eligibility at first, second, third, shortstop and left field. He suffered an injury this week when a throw to second from Tomas Telis took a bad hop off wet ground and hit him in the face. He underwent concussion tests as well as other examinations. Everything came back negative. He is the odds-on favorite to win the final bench job, as long as his bat stays hot.

 

Matt Juengel The Marlins’ 24th round draft pick from 2012. After a .284/.304/.378 21 game start to the year in AA, he spent most of last season hitting .263/.325/.431 with 11 homers. His combined 132 game, .266/.322/.423 campaign was his best since his days in low A. Quite possibly the most disciplined hitter of anyone in the running for this final bench spot, he has a career 1.99 K/BB. This spring, he is off to a .313/.421/.375 start with a 3/3 K/BB and has reached in six of his 10 appearances. Primarily a rangey 3B with a decent arm but has eligibility at 1B in LF. Also has experience in CF and RF. The most positionally flexible of all candidates after Rojas, if Juengel keeps showing off his all fields plus power bat, he’ll be the next guy in line should anything go awry with the Opening Day roster.

 

Brian Anderson The Marlins’ best positional prospect is not-so-arguably enjoying the best spring of all Marlins’ NRIs. Hitting .421/.421/.789 with four doubles and a homer in his first 19 ABs, he’s reached base safely in eight of 11 games. Has also flashed great range at third especially for a 6’3″, 185 pounder due to good reads off the bat and a quick first step to the ball. Throwing arm is strong but still inaccurate as it has been throughout most of his minor league career including last season when he committed 27 errors. Also has eligibility at second base but power and size project best as future 1B.

Despite great showing this spring, he’s still only played 85 games above A ball so making the Opening Day roster is probably out of the question. However, if Anderson continues to hit in the upper minors and if the Marlins’ experiment platooning J.T. Realmuto with Justin Bour at first and sacrificing offense behind the plate by forcing A.J. Ellis into more starts doesn’t work out, Anderson, who has absolutely crushed lefties in his career in the minors (360+/.430+/.520+ including .303/.370/.500 last year) should be next in line after Rojas and Moore to platoon at 1B. Therefore, don’t be surprised if you see the 23-year-old at Marlins Park sooner rather than later.

 

Tyler Moore Signed by Miami after electing free agency from the Braves where he most recently had an injury hampered .229/.276/.375 campaign between AAA and rehabilitation rookie ball which came after he missed nearly all of 2015 due to a left ankle sprain, a fully healthy Moore has made a name for himself in a Marlins’ uniform on the early spring. Hit home runs in each of his first two spring training appearances and went on to reach base in four of his last seven appearances. Hitting .333/.368/.833 overall. Going off recent history, he is a health risk and has minimal positional flexibility, limited to 1B and LF. However, he’s a .290+ BA, .350+ OBP, .560+ SLG minor league bat against lefties who could serve as a platoon partner at 1B and/or heavy late game bat at some point this season.

 

Matt den Dekker Fifth round signee by the Mets out of the University of Florida and the SEC in 2010. Once a highly regarded prospect but suffered the fate of a quadruple A player, hitting .272/.339/.440 in his MiLB career but just .236/.318/.359 in his 154 game Major League career thus far. Released by the Nationals after being DFA’d and outrighted last year; signed with the Marlins as a free agent. With a career .988 fielding percentage and a 2.27 range factor on top of 29 assists, den Dekker is a more than solid defensive center fielder who also has eligibility at the corner outfield spots. Has sub-par career numbers anywhere above the AA level. Performed decently early in spring, reaching base in five of his first 11 appearances but starting games for Christian Yelich who is playing in the WBC, has since gone ice cold, going 0 for his last 8. Will need to pick it up a bit with the bat but his defensive prowess makes him a candidate to crack the Opening Day roster as a late game replacement and lefty bat off the bench.

 

Yefri Perez The fastest man the Marlins have ever seen as he proved last year when he made his MLB debut, nearly exclusively as a pinch runner, getting just two turns to bat in 12 game appearances. Next to Rojas, he has the most positional availability out of anyone going out for this roster spot, eligible at second, short, left and center. However, he’s just 2-17 this spring. He should be included in the next round of cuts. That being said, Yefri vastly improved his patience at the plate last year in AA, improving his walk rate to 10.3%, nearly double the 5.5% mark he posted in A+ in 2015. Preceeding that, he also had a great showing in the Arizona Fall League, slashing .270/.349/.297 with a 10.8% walk rate and of course, in true Yefri fashion, seven steals in 18 games. Despite getting just the two ABs, it would appear as though being in a MLB clubhouse worked wonders for the speedster who will return to AA this year. Should he continue to find his way on base as a Jumbo Shrimp, the 26-year-old could be back with the Marlins sometime this year, this time in a much more complete bench player capacity.

 

Brandon Barnes Minor league free agent signee who has had a respectable power producing .260/.320/.437, 99 homer minor league career but translated it to just a .242/.289/.356 major league career in which he has posted a putrid 5.6 K/BB% over 1,153 ABs. 2-19 with eight Ks so far in spring training. Limited to the outfield. He along with his many tattoos will be sent to AAA shortly.

 

Fifth Starter

Dan Straily The return piece in the Marlins’ late offseason trade that was very fortunate to have the season he had last year in Cincinatti. His luck was first proven by his ability to somehow hold down a 2.90 ERA by way of a .197 BAA and a .212 BABIP at one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league (versus a much more Dan Straily like and much more realistic 4.70 ERA via a .242 BAA and .269 BABIP on the road). This spring, his luck last year is being proven by his early allowance of four runs off two homers in just 2.2 IP. Since he came at the expense of the Marlins’ second best pitching prospect Luis Castillo, he will probably be given a long leash and stick around until the very end of spring training, but with a straight fastball that barely touches 90 and breaking pitches which he can’t command low in the zone, Straily will either start the season in AAA or be sent there not long after the season starts, the product of another doozy by Michael Hill.

 

Jarlin Garcia The Marlins’ third best pitching prospect entering 2017, he missed time with an injury in 2016 when the Marlins called him up to the majors following a 4.04 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .239 BAA start just to keep him on the bench for nine days. Upon his return to AA, the Suns tried to ease him back into action but his second time back out, he went down with an injury that would cost him two months. He spent the rest of the season in the GCL and in Jupiter getting back in to shape. He arrived at spring training this year back at 100% and has had a good start (albeit in very limited action), not allowing a run over his first three appearances, all which lasted a single inning. He’s fun to watch on the mound, winding up slowly before exploding through his delivery which generates mid-upper 90s heat. He shows a good velo range, dropping his piggybacking changeup and best breaking pitch down about 10 miles an hour and mixes in a power curve which he needs to develop a better feel for and throw it from more consistent release points. The Marlins are probably going to take it easy with Garcia who has thrown in just 16 games above A ball. However, while it is possible that Garcia’s long term future is in the bullpen, the Marlins, with very little MLB ready rotational depth to speak of, could give Garcia a shot at the back end if he gets back on track in the upper minors to start the year and as soon as the Dan Straily experiment fails.

 

Justin Nicolino 6’3″ 200 pound lefty who was once a promising prospect, appearing inside the Marlins’ top 10 prospects every year from 2013-2015. Made his MLB debut in the last of those seasons, tossing to the tune of a decent 4.01 ERA and 1.24 in 12 starts. Started 2016 in AAA where he was very good. Despite a somewhat embellished 4.13 ERA, he held down a 1.18 WHIP and a 49/13 K/BB, warranting another call to the majors. However, upon his second arrival in as many years in Miami, that’s when Nicolino took a turn for the worst. In 18 games (13 starts) and 79.1 IP with the Marlins, he was lit up to the tune of a 4.99 ERA by way of a .307 BAA and 1.46 WHIP. He walked 20 while striking out just 37. His woes have continued this early spring as he’s allowed six runs on nine hits in 4.1 innings. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly why things have gone so far downhill for Nicolino. His reputation for having impeccable control has followed him to the majors where he limited walks to 2.4 per nine innings in 2015 and improved that metric slightly to 2.4 in 2016.


One explanation for his struggles though may lie in his command. Not being a guy who is going to blow any of his pitches which barely reach 90 past anyone, Nicolino has to be a guy who keeps the ball low in order to generate weak contact. Most of the way through the minors and in his first 12 MLB appearances, the 6’3″ hurler, throwing from a downward plane, did that advantageously. However, according to his heat maps, this past year, he threw from a much more vertical stature and hit the middle and upper half of the zone much more frequently, leading his 22.7% soft contact rate to drop to 15.4%, his medium contact rate to rise from 47.1% to 51.7% and his hard contact rate to jump from 30.2% to 32.9%. He’s still just 25 so his stone isn’t cast and there’s still time for him to go to the minors and rectify his delivery problems. However, the ceiling he once had as a top end starter is probably out of reach. At this point, he’s more of a 4-5 starter or even more realistically, a long relief bullpen option.

 

Jeff Locke Acquired in the offseason as a free agent from the Pirates. A 3.63 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 3.22 career minor leaguer, had a solid first full season in the majors in 2013, posting a 10-7 record in 30 starts with a 3.52 ERA via a 4.03 FIP and making the All-Star Game. However, that’s also when his control problems began. Having never posted a walk rate above 3% in his career, that metric ballooned to nearly 5%. In 2014, Locke was in the strike zone much more often but judging by his walk rate shrinking down to 2.74% but judging by his allowance of more than a homer per nine innings and on 13% of his fly balls, he was getting way too much of the zone. You wouldn’t know it if you judged him by his 4.49 ERA but going on his peripherals, 2015 was Locke’s best season. That year, his walk rate normalized back to 3.21 but his K rate improved to 6.9%, a MLB career high, his HR/9 shrunk back down to 0.8. Despite a heightened .312 BABIP, he held down a 3.95 FIP and was a 1.6 WAR pitcher. Locke’s slow but steady improvement in getting his walks in check while also improving his command to become the guy he was two years ago can be attributed to then Pirates’ special assistant to the GM and renowned “pitcher whisperer”, Jim Benedict. It is that version of Locke the Marlins hope can be brought back by Benedict who was hired away from the Pirates by Miami last year. What the Marlins don’t to see is the Locke that struggled mightily without Benedict last season, the Locke that only struck out 5% of his hitters while walking 3.3% of them, allowed hard contact at a career high 30% rate while inducing weak contact outs at a career low 16% rate, and had a 5.44 ERA (seventh highest in baseball) by way of a 4.84 FIP and 1.53 WHIP (10th highest in MLB).

It was the Marlins’ hope when signing Locke that being reunited with Benedict would bring Locke circa 2015 back but this spring, it hasn’t happened. A lot of the reason for that is because Locke suffered a throwing shoulder injury early in spring training workouts that required an MRI and revealed tendinitis. However, since starting to throw again last week, Locke has apparently not shown much, causing Don Mattingly to label him as “a guy we just don’t think is ready“. Even though he just arrived in Miami and hasn’t thrown much since doing so, there’s still doubt surrounding the possibility of even Benedict fixing the 29-year-old for a second time, at least in getting him back into rotational capacity.

While he may never get back into a MLB rotation, Locke isn’t a complete lost cause. Despite his overall horrible 2016, he finished the year in the bullpen where he held down respectable numbers, including a 3.38 ERA and a 3.0 K/BB. Though he will probably start the year in New Orleans due to all of the missed time with injury this spring, he adds another lefty arm to the Marlins’ great relief depth. After getting back in shape in AAA and hopefully making a smooth transition to a full-time pen role, a process that will undoubtedly be aided by Benedict, Locke should make his Marlins’ debut out of the pen this season with the possiblity of seeing some spot starts. As for an Opening Day job though, he’s completely out of the running.

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Trade Analysis: Luis Castillo, Austin Brice, Isaiah White To Reds For Dan Straily

Dan Straily

A few months back at the winter meetings, the Marlins passed on a multitude of offers they had on the table offering proven MLB pitching help for their top pitching prospect above A, Luis Castillo. They passed on all of them. This week, the Marlins dealt Castillo along with swing man Austin Brice and raw but talented outfielder Isaiah White, three of their top 16 prospects, for first-year Reds’ starter last year, Dan Straily whom they claimed off of waivers last April.

Straily is a 24th round draft pick by the Oakland Athletics from 2008. He had an average to mediocre start to his minor league career, posting a 4.09 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP before breaking out in AA and AAA in 2012. In 152 IP that year, he had a 3.02 ERA and an even 1.000 WHIP before getting his first major league cup of coffee in August. In two combined short stints with the A’s that equaled 39 IP at the end of that season, he held down an ERA just shy of 4 (3.89) and a 1.322 WHIP. Despite the fairly solid year, Straily was left off the A’s 2013 Opening Day roster and began a second year in AAA. But after holding down a 1.14 ERA in his first five starts, he was called up to begin his first full year in the majors. Pitching in 27 starts and 152.1 IP, the 24-year-old rookie was moderately impressive. He negated a pretty high walk rate of 3.4 by allowing just 132 hits, spelling out a 1.241 WHIP and a 3.96 ERA Five years younger than the average major leaguer, it looked as though Straily, with a solid enough for a back-end starter rookie year in his pocket even though he had a very limited arsenal of just two plus WAR pitches, good heat and a nasty slider and was very susceptible to the homer (2.5 HR/9), had plenty of room to grow.

However, in 2014, Straily faded back into mediocrity. He made his first Opening Day roster and despite one start in which he allowed six runs, was his usual self, posting a 3.5 walk rate and a 2.1 HR/9 but again negated them by allowing a total of 33 hits, leading him to another solid WHIP of 1.252. On the forefront his 4.93 ERA beginning to his second MLB season was hideous but erase the aforementioned one bad start and his ERA was 3.54 with four quality starts. However, the A’s apparently couldn’t look past that one unfortunate outing. They sent Straily back to AAA on May 8th. For the next two seasons, Straily would remain mired in the minor league systems of three different organizations, unable to return to the form he flashed in 2013 and 2014. From a 4.71 ERA, 1.270 WHIP first half of 2014 with the Sacramento Bees of Oakland’s system to a 4.09, 1.436 second half with the Iowa Cubs whom he joined as part of the Addison Russell/Jeff Samardzija trade to a 4.77, 1.402 full season with the Fresno Grizzlies, Houston’s AAA affiliate whom he joined after the trade that sent Dexter Fowler to the Cubs in 2015 with a few equally unimpressive MLB spot starts sprinkled in, Straily was in serious danger of putting a label on himself that no baseball player wants: AAAA player.

This past year, the Reds gave Straily perhaps his final chance to prove he can make it in the majors. After joining the Padres in a minor trade only to be DFA’d by them before ever appearing in a game for their organization, the Reds, Straily’s fifth club in four seasons, claimed him off waivers. In a do-or-die year in reference to his career in Major League Baseball, it would appear on the forefront that Straily was able to return to to form. In the most hitter friendly park in the league, he posted a 3.76 ERA by way of a 1.19 WHIP. However, if we delve deeper into Straily’s stats, it is revealed that he seems to have been a very fortunate beneficiary of circumstance.

First, let’s take a look at Straily’s BABIP. Where the major league average is .298 and Straily’s career MLB average is .255, he put up a .239. Unsustainable. Also unsustainable is Straily’s LOB%. Where that MLB average was 72.9% and Straily’s career average is 74.3%, he stranded runners at a ridiculous 81.2% rate. Unless you believe Straily has suddenly become comparable to guys like Jon Lester, Ian Kennedy, Max Scherzer and Kyle Hendricks (all of whom had higher BABIPs than Straily), he will not be capable of posting metrics like that again. The numbers from Straily’s good full season with the Astros are astronomically different. That year, his BABIP was a much more realistic .266 and his LOB% a much more regulated 70.3%. So again, Straily didn’t return to that form last year; he was just lucky. What aided him in his good fortune was a good Reds’ defense. Even though it committed the seventh most errors in baseball, the Cincinnati D only lost a total of 6.5 runs to them. In nearly every other one of their advanced fielding metrics including their 17.1 range runs above average which ranked ninth in baseball, their 6.0 ultimate zone rating which ranked 13th, their 10 runs above average good fielding plays which ranked third and their overall 11.0 Def rating, the Reds’ defense was one of the better manned fields in the league.

The luck Straily had and the aid he got from his defense is further proven by the 5.02 xFIP, the rate at which Straily could’ve been expected to give up runs independent of fielders. It was the highest xFIP among NL starters. Straily’s good fortune is also proven by the rate at which he gave up hard contact, 32.2%, 11th highest among NL starters. Straily induced ground balls at the absolute lowest rate in the NL among starters, 32% which is fine for a pure fly ball pitcher. But he also allowed the most homers in baseball, 31, by way of the 15th highest HR/FB ratio among NL starters. Great American Ballpark which had the fourth highest park factor in baseball is to blame, right? Well, no. In almost the exact same amount of innings on the road (92) versus at home (99), Straily gave up 18 homers. His total surrendered at Great American was 13. Looking at those same home/road splits a bit further will just baffle you even more and points to just how much of a ridiculous anomaly Straily’s 2016 campaign was. He was overall better — a lot better — at the his hitters’ haven band box of a home park as opposed on the road. Again, in nearly the same amount of innings at home versus on the road, he held hitters to a .193 BA and posted a 2.90 ERA. On the road? .242 BAA and a 4.70 ERA. His home and road BABIPs? A virtually unheard of (especially considering where he was pitching and a mark which very well may be the lowest ever posted at that park) .213 versus a much more regulated .266 on the road.

So here we have in Straily, a guy which had one decent full season in the majors before spending most of the rest of his career in the minors, a guy the Reds threw a bone by giving him quite possibly his final chance to succeed in the majors, and a guy who did so by having one of the luckiest seasons imaginable. It is only fair to mention that Straily’s 2016 season shouldn’t be completely written off as nothing but good fortune. He appeared to make some adjustments for the second half which brought an 8.3 K/BB% all the way up to 11.2% and he had one of the best sliders in baseball, value wise at 13.9 wins above replacement. It is on those hopes and the move to pitcher friendly NL East that the Fish are basing their hopes on Straily continuing to “rediscover” himself. If he can’t, at least he won’t be costing Miami much money. He is under club control until 2020.

While that all would be well and good to confide a couple B-C type prospects in, the Marlins parted with Luis Castillo (for the second time in a year, no less which raises questions about what the Marlins thought of his ability despite great on-field performance) their best minor league pitching prospect above single A, a guy who has the ability hit triple digits with his great sinking fastball and who has a fantastic changeup as well as great control over both of them and who is very close to making a major league debut, especially if he can continue to improve his command. They also lost a very solid hurler in Austin Brice, a guy who can pitch either from the back of the rotation or out of the bullpen thanks to a free and easy repeatable delivery despite his large size. Pitching in a swing man role this past year, he appeared to iron out the rest of his control issues on his way to a 2.74 ERA via a 1.098 WHIP between AA and AAA on his way to making his MLB debut. Brice has a debilitating curveball and, getting his 6’4″ 235 pound frame behind his pitches, a fastball that consistently sits mid 90s and has the ability to go even higher. He shortens the distance to the plate by throwing from a full circle arm angle in which he hides the ball well. Whether it be as a back end starter or a reliever, he definitely has a future in the majors that, like Castillo, isn’t far away.

The Marlins could have simply given their final rotation spot to Jeff Locke, a guy who has struggled last year but, with his return to the tutelage of the famous “pitcher whisperer”, Jim Benedict, the guy who made him an All-Star in 2013 and a 3.69 ERA, 1.365 WHIP, 4.02 xFIP contributor from 2013-15 in Pittsburgh, had as good a chance if not a better one as Straily did to return to his former “glory”. If Locke didn’t, Castillo, with continued success in AA/AAA, would be waiting in the wings to join the rotation and/or Brice, who already made his MLB debut last year, would be waiting to join either the rotation or the bullpen in long relief, allowing the Marlins to move David Phelps back to the rotation. Instead, the Fish lose both of those young prospects for a 27-year-old former journeyman with very little self-made major league success in his pocket.

All things considered, what can we expect from Straily? If he does manage to win the final rotation spot out of spring training, something the Marlins have yet to commit to him in favor of saying they will still run an open competition, home league aside, there is no way he will post another BABIP as low as he did in 2016. That said, even though the Marlins have a better defense than the Reds did last year, his ERA, unless he’s on the same level a two-time lottery winner, should be closer to his xFIP. With Straily turning 28, making an educated guess, I would credit him with no better than a 4.50 ERA via a 1.3 WHIP and 20+ homers allowed. That is what not one, not two but three of our top 16 prospects will have cost us.

Bravo, Mr. Hill. Bravo.